Pre-match

Medium risk

Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Victory

Fri, Aug 21, 10:00 AM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 67/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Adelaide Olympic (WWWWL) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 1.2 for Adelaide Victory (LLWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 67/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

67/100

Confidence

67/100

Strongest cover

75.4% probability

Risk classification

Medium

24.6% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

45 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AO win42.6%

Draw24.6%

AV win32.8%

Goals

Over 1.582.3%

Over 2.560.4%

Under 2.539.6%

Both teams to score

Yes63.4%

No36.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Adelaide Olympic

12/15 recent form points

WWWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.91
Shots on target: Unavailable

Adelaide Victory

6/15 recent form points

LLWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.82
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 1/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 21, 12:41 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Adelaide Victory 0-1 Adelaide Olympic

2026-07-18T07:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Adelaide Olympic 1-2 Adelaide Victory

2026-04-17T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +7.5%	3.80	26.3%	24.6%	-1.7%
	Marathonbet	3.60	27.8%	24.6%	-3.2%
	Betfair	3.60	27.8%	24.6%	-3.2%
	Pinnacle	3.60	27.8%	24.6%	-3.2%
	Unibet	3.35	29.9%	24.6%	-5.3%
	William Hill	3.25	30.8%	24.6%	-6.2%
Away 1X2	William HillBest price +5.4%	2.80	35.7%	32.8%	-2.9%
	Unibet	2.75	36.4%	32.8%	-3.6%
	Betfair	2.63	38.0%	32.8%	-5.2%
	Bet365	2.62	38.2%	32.8%	-5.4%
	Marathonbet	2.60	38.5%	32.8%	-5.7%
	Pinnacle	2.54	39.4%	32.8%	-6.6%
Home 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +2.6%	2.22	45.0%	42.6%	-2.4%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	42.6%	-2.9%
	Pinnacle	2.17	46.1%	42.6%	-3.5%
	William Hill	2.15	46.5%	42.6%	-3.9%
	Unibet	2.14	46.7%	42.6%	-4.1%
	Bet365	2.10	47.6%	42.6%	-5.0%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.1%	2.38	42.0%	39.6%	-2.4%
	Marathonbet	2.33	42.9%	39.6%	-3.3%
	Pinnacle	2.29	43.7%	39.6%	-4.1%
	Unibet	2.23	44.8%	39.6%	-5.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.2%	1.53	65.4%	60.4%	-5.0%
	Unibet	1.53	65.4%	60.4%	-5.0%
	Pinnacle	1.51	66.2%	60.4%	-5.8%
	Marathonbet	1.48	67.6%	60.4%	-7.2%
No BTTS	William HillBest price	2.50	40.0%	36.6%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	2.50	40.0%	36.6%	-3.4%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +0.3%	1.44	69.4%	63.4%	-6.0%
	Marathonbet	1.43	69.9%	63.4%	-6.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.4%	1.60	62.5%	0.0%	-62.5%
	Bet365	1.60	62.5%	0.0%	-62.5%
	Betfair	1.57	63.7%	0.0%	-63.7%
	Marathonbet	1.52	65.8%	0.0%	-65.8%
	Unibet	1.52	65.8%	0.0%	-65.8%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +4.7%	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Bet365	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Marathonbet	1.38	72.5%	0.0%	-72.5%
	William Hill	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Unibet	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.2%	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Unibet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	Marathonbet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Bet365	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%

Model reasoning

Adelaide Olympic have been relatively solid at both ends, with 42 goals scored and 25 conceded across 22 matches, plus 8 clean sheets. Their recent run includes four straight wins before a recent loss, which supports the idea they can keep games competitive and still contribute offensively. Adelaide Victory’s season numbers suggest a more open profile, with 40 goals scored but 34 conceded and only 6 clean sheets. Their recent form is mixed, but they have shown enough attacking output to make it plausible they score even if they’re not consistently shutting opponents out. With both teams to score at 63.4% and over 2.5 goals at 60.4%, the matchup leans toward a game where Adelaide Olympic’s attack finds chances while Adelaide Victory also get on the scoresheet. The home win and away win probabilities are fairly close (42.6% vs 32.8%), so a draw is also a reasonable outcome, which fits a BTTS-style script. Overall, BTTS Yes looks like the most supported angle here, with a medium risk level and a 67 confidence score, rather than a high-conviction call.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 21 Aug 2026 02:07 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Adelaide Olympic predictions · Adelaide Victory predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.