Pre-match

Medium risk

Calcutta Police vs Peerless

Fri, Aug 21, 09:30 AM

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 60/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

Calcutta Police (LWWLL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1 for Peerless (LLWDD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 60/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

60/100

Confidence

60/100

Strongest cover

73.1% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.9% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

CP win26.9%

Draw26.9%

P win46.2%

Goals

Over 1.566.7%

Over 2.548.2%

Under 2.551.8%

Both teams to score

Yes52.7%

No47.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Calcutta Police

6/15 recent form points

LWWLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.57
Shots on target: Unavailable

Peerless

5/15 recent form points

LLWDD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.60
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/2 and Over 2.5 in 0/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 21, 12:01 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Calcutta Police 0-2 Peerless

2025-07-01T11:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Calcutta Police 0-0 Peerless

2024-08-11T11:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	Bet365Best price +0.7%	3.40	29.4%	26.9%	-2.5%
	Betfair	3.40	29.4%	26.9%	-2.5%
	Betano	3.40	29.4%	26.9%	-2.5%
	1xBet	3.39	29.5%	26.9%	-2.6%
	10Bet	3.35	29.9%	26.9%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	3.32	30.1%	26.9%	-3.2%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +2.9%	3.40	29.4%	26.9%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	3.34	29.9%	26.9%	-3.0%
	1xBet	3.34	29.9%	26.9%	-3.0%
	Betfair	3.30	30.3%	26.9%	-3.4%
	10Bet	3.25	30.8%	26.9%	-3.9%
	Betano	3.20	31.3%	26.9%	-4.4%
Away 1X2	BetanoBest price +1.5%	1.98	50.5%	46.2%	-4.3%
	1xBet	1.97	50.8%	46.2%	-4.6%
	10Bet	1.95	51.3%	46.2%	-5.1%
	Marathonbet	1.95	51.3%	46.2%	-5.1%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	46.2%	-5.1%
	Bet365	1.91	52.4%	46.2%	-6.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.0%	1.95	51.3%	48.2%	-3.1%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	48.2%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	1.89	52.9%	48.2%	-4.7%
	1xBet	1.89	52.9%	48.2%	-4.7%
	Betano	1.87	53.5%	48.2%	-5.3%
	10Bet	1.85	54.1%	48.2%	-5.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.0%	1.85	54.1%	51.8%	-2.3%
	Marathonbet	1.80	55.6%	51.8%	-3.8%
	Betfair	1.80	55.6%	51.8%	-3.8%
	1xBet	1.80	55.6%	51.8%	-3.8%
	Betano	1.78	56.2%	51.8%	-4.4%
	10Bet	1.75	57.1%	51.8%	-5.3%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +2.2%	2.00	50.0%	47.3%	-2.7%
	1xBet	1.95	51.3%	47.3%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	1.92	52.1%	47.3%	-4.8%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.73	57.8%	52.7%	-5.1%
	Betfair	1.73	57.8%	52.7%	-5.1%
	1xBet	1.73	57.8%	52.7%	-5.1%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +2.9%	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Betfair	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Marathonbet	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	1xBet	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	Betano	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	10Bet	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetanoBest price +2.7%	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	1xBet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	10Bet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +2.1%	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Betano	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	1xBet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%

Model reasoning

Peerless look slightly more likely to take the points away, with their away win probability at 46.2% versus Calcutta Police’s 26.9%, while the draw sits at 26.9%. The overall win picture is fairly tight, so this leans toward Peerless rather than strongly favoring them. In terms of scoring, the match is close to a coin-flip for goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and both teams to score at 52.7%. Calcutta Police have scored 4 and conceded 7 across 7 matches, while Peerless have scored 3 and conceded 6 across 5 matches, suggesting modest scoring with some chance of both sides finding goals. Defensively, Calcutta Police have more clean sheets (3) than Peerless (1), but Peerless have conceded fewer goals per match (6 in 5) than Calcutta Police (7 in 7), which helps explain why the away win edge is present despite the clean-sheet gap. With a confidence score of 60 and medium risk, the away win case is reasonable, but the draw and the possibility of a low-to-moderate scoring game keep uncertainty relatively high.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:41 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Calcutta Police predictions · Peerless predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.