Pre-match

Medium risk

Blacktown Spartans vs Hurstville FC

Fri, Aug 21, 10:15 AM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 74/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Blacktown Spartans (WWWWW) project at 2.4 expected goals versus 1 for Hurstville FC (WWLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 74/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

74/100

Confidence

74/100

Strongest cover

82.3% probability

Risk classification

Medium

19.5% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

48 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

BS win62.8%

Draw19.5%

HF win17.7%

Goals

Over 1.585.9%

Over 2.568.4%

Under 2.531.6%

Both teams to score

Yes62.2%

No37.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Blacktown Spartans

15/15 recent form points

WWWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.54
Shots on target: Unavailable

Hurstville FC

6/15 recent form points

WWLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.43
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 21, 12:32 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Hurstville FC 2-2 Blacktown Spartans

2026-05-08T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +11.4%	5.15	19.4%	17.7%	-1.7%
	Betfair	4.75	21.1%	17.7%	-3.4%
	BetVictor	4.75	21.1%	17.7%	-3.4%
	William Hill	4.60	21.7%	17.7%	-4.0%
	Bet365	4.50	22.2%	17.7%	-4.5%
	Unibet	4.00	25.0%	17.7%	-7.3%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +8.0%	4.60	21.7%	19.5%	-2.2%
	Marathonbet	4.55	22.0%	19.5%	-2.5%
	Bet365	4.50	22.2%	19.5%	-2.7%
	William Hill	4.00	25.0%	19.5%	-5.5%
	Unibet	4.00	25.0%	19.5%	-5.5%
	BetVictor	3.90	25.6%	19.5%	-6.1%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +9.2%	1.61	62.1%	62.8%	+0.7%
	William Hill	1.50	66.7%	62.8%	-3.9%
	Bet365	1.48	67.6%	62.8%	-4.8%
	Betfair	1.47	68.0%	62.8%	-5.2%
	Marathonbet	1.43	69.9%	62.8%	-7.1%
	BetVictor	1.36	73.5%	62.8%	-10.7%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.1%	3.00	33.3%	31.6%	-1.7%
	Unibet	2.90	34.5%	31.6%	-2.9%
	Marathonbet	2.83	35.3%	31.6%	-3.7%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.7%	1.36	73.5%	68.4%	-5.1%
	Marathonbet	1.33	75.2%	68.4%	-6.8%
	Unibet	1.32	75.8%	68.4%	-7.4%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +4.4%	2.45	40.8%	37.8%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	2.44	41.0%	37.8%	-3.2%
	BetVictor	2.15	46.5%	37.8%	-8.7%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +2.4%	1.45	69.0%	62.2%	-6.8%
	William Hill	1.44	69.4%	62.2%	-7.2%
	BetVictor	1.36	73.5%	62.2%	-11.3%
Draw or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +4.2%	2.43	41.2%	0.0%	-41.2%
	Bet365	2.40	41.7%	0.0%	-41.7%
	Betfair	2.40	41.7%	0.0%	-41.7%
	BetVictor	2.40	41.7%	0.0%	-41.7%
	William Hill	2.38	42.0%	0.0%	-42.0%
	Unibet	1.98	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.3%	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Marathonbet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	BetVictor	1.05	95.2%	0.0%	-95.2%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.7%	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Unibet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Betfair	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Marathonbet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
	BetVictor	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%

Model reasoning

Blacktown Spartans have been strong at home, with 20 wins from 28 matches and a goal record of 71 scored versus 32 conceded. They also have 6 clean sheets, which suggests they’re often able to control games defensively. Hurstville FC’s away record is less convincing, with 9 wins from 28 and 40 goals scored compared to 46 conceded. Their recent form is mixed to poor, showing two wins followed by three losses in their last five. The matchup profile points toward goals, with Blacktown’s season scoring and Hurstville’s concession rate supporting an over 2.5 goals outcome. The likelihood of both teams scoring is also relatively high, though Blacktown’s clean-sheet count keeps it from looking one-sided. Overall, the home win is the most likely result (62.8%) with a moderate confidence level (74) and a meaningful draw risk (19.5%), so it’s a reasonable lean rather than a certainty.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 21 Aug 2026 03:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Blacktown Spartans predictions · Hurstville FC predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.