Pre-match

High risk

Lille vs Estac Troyes prediction

Sun, Sep 13, 01:00 PMStade Pierre-Mauroy

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 47/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Lille (DWDWL) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.4 for Estac Troyes (DWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 47/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

47/100

Confidence

47/100

Strongest cover

74.2% probability

Risk classification

High

25.8% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

L win41.1%

Draw25.8%

ET win33.1%

Goals

Over 1.580.2%

Over 2.556.9%

Under 2.543.1%

Both teams to score

Yes60.2%

No39.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Lille

8/15 recent form points

DWDWL

xG / match: 1.14
xGA / match: 2.20
Goals / match: 1.53
Shots on target: Unavailable

Estac Troyes

4/9 recent form points

DWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.33
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Estac Troyes 1-1 Lille

2023-06-03T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Lille 5-1 Estac Troyes

2023-01-15T13:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes

2023-01-08T20:45:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Estac Troyes 3-0 Lille

2022-05-01T13:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Lille 2-1 Estac Troyes

2021-12-04T19:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Estac Troyes 1-0 Lille

2018-01-20T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Lille 2-2 Estac Troyes

2017-10-14T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lille 1-3 Estac Troyes

2016-01-23T20:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Estac Troyes 1-1 Lille

2015-11-21T20:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Lille 2-1 Estac Troyes

2015-10-28T21:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the BTTS Yes lean for Lille vs Estac Troyes. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Team hubs: Lille predictions · Estac Troyes predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.