Lecce vs AS Roma

AS Roma’s away profile looks stronger than Lecce’s home output. Roma’s record is 23W 4D 11L overall, while Lecce is 10W 8D 20L, and Roma has a much better defensive record with 31 goals conceded versus Lecce’s 50. Roma also has more clean sheets (18) than Lecce (10), which supports the idea that Lecce may struggle to convert chances. The expected goals figures reinforce that gap. Roma’s expected goals for are higher (143.46) and their expected goals against are far lower (10.94), while Lecce’s expected goals for (93.19) are lower and expected goals against are higher (121.40). This combination points toward Roma creating more and conceding less, aligning with the away win lean. The goal-related probabilities also fit a Roma-favored script. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 67.4%, and both teams to score at 61.4%, suggesting the match is more likely to include goals rather than a low-scoring stalemate. With Roma’s strong form shown as WWWWW in the most recent stretch, the away win probability (65.2%) is the most prominent outcome, though the confidence is only moderate and the risk is high. Overall, an away win is the most likely result, but it’s not a lock given Lecce’s recent form includes some wins and the “both teams to score” probability is relatively high.