UEFA Europa League
Finished
High risk

Jagiellonia vs FC Iberia 1999

40Full time
Thu, Aug 20, 04:00 PMChorten Arena

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 58/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Jagiellonia (WDW) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 0.9 for FC Iberia 1999 (DWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 58/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

58/100

Confidence
58/100

Strongest cover

1X

85.6% probability

Risk classification

High

21.8% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

J win63.8%
Draw21.8%
FI1 win14.4%

Goals

Over 1.573.7%
Over 2.547.8%
Under 2.552.2%

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Jagiellonia

7/9 recent form points

WDW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.33
Shots on target
Unavailable

FC Iberia 1999

4/9 recent form points

DWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.67
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Jagiellonia 4-0 FC Iberia 1999

2026-08-20T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Jagiellonia at home have been strong in their first three matches, going 2W 1D with 7 goals scored and only 2 conceded. They also kept 1 clean sheet, and their recent sequence includes two wins and a draw (WDW), which supports a home edge. FC Iberia 1999’s away record is more mixed, with 1W 1D 1L and 2 goals scored versus 5 conceded. Their recent form is D W L, suggesting they can compete but have also shown vulnerability, especially in matches where they concede. The goal indicators are fairly balanced: both teams to score is just under even at 48.2%, and over 2.5 goals is at 47.8%. That aligns with a match that could be tight rather than one-sided, even if Jagiellonia’s home results lean the most likely direction. With home win probability at 63.8% and confidenceScore 58, the home win call is reasonable but not secure, which fits the high risk level. A draw remains a meaningful alternative at 21.8%, and the away win at 14.4% is not negligible given Iberia’s ability to take points.

Recorded forecast

Final score

4-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 49.4% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1554 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Tue, 18 Aug 2026 16:52 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Jagiellonia predictions · FC Iberia 1999 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.