Pre-match

High risk

Hellas Verona U20 vs Cesena U20

Mon, Aug 24, 03:00 PM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 47/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Hellas Verona U20 (WLWLL) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.5 for Cesena U20 (WLWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 47/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

47/100

Confidence

47/100

Strongest cover

74.6% probability

Risk classification

High

25.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

HVU win35.4%

Draw25.4%

CU win39.2%

Goals

Over 1.581.5%

Over 2.557.7%

Under 2.542.3%

Both teams to score

Yes61%

No39%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Hellas Verona U20

6/15 recent form points

WLWLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.45
Shots on target: Unavailable

Cesena U20

9/15 recent form points

WLWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.82
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/5 and Over 2.5 in 2/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 24, 08:48 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Cesena U20 0-0 Hellas Verona U20

2026-01-26T14:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Hellas Verona U20 2-1 Cesena U20

2025-09-15T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Cesena U20 0-5 Hellas Verona U20

2025-05-04T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Hellas Verona U20 1-1 Cesena U20

2024-12-15T15:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Hellas Verona U20 2-0 Cesena U20

2024-12-03T14:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +4.9%	3.60	27.8%	25.4%	-2.4%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	25.4%	-3.2%
	10Bet	3.45	29.0%	25.4%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	3.44	29.1%	25.4%	-3.7%
	Unibet	3.35	29.9%	25.4%	-4.5%
	William Hill	3.25	30.8%	25.4%	-5.4%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +3.3%	2.63	38.0%	35.4%	-2.6%
	Bet365	2.55	39.2%	35.4%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	2.55	39.2%	35.4%	-3.8%
	Betfair	2.55	39.2%	35.4%	-3.8%
	10Bet	2.50	40.0%	35.4%	-4.6%
	William Hill	2.50	40.0%	35.4%	-4.6%
Away 1X2	William HillBest price +3.8%	2.38	42.0%	39.2%	-2.8%
	10Bet	2.33	42.9%	39.2%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	2.33	42.9%	39.2%	-3.7%
	Betfair	2.30	43.5%	39.2%	-4.3%
	Bet365	2.25	44.4%	39.2%	-5.2%
	Unibet	2.17	46.1%	39.2%	-6.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +3.8%	2.25	44.4%	42.3%	-2.1%
	Bet365	2.20	45.5%	42.3%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	2.19	45.7%	42.3%	-3.4%
	10Bet	2.10	47.6%	42.3%	-5.3%
	Unibet	2.10	47.6%	42.3%	-5.3%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.6%	1.65	60.6%	57.7%	-2.9%
	Unibet	1.60	62.5%	57.7%	-4.8%
	Marathonbet	1.59	62.9%	57.7%	-5.2%
	Betfair	1.57	63.7%	57.7%	-6.0%
	10Bet	1.55	64.5%	57.7%	-6.8%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +1.1%	2.38	42.0%	39.0%	-3.0%
	Betfair	2.38	42.0%	39.0%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	2.34	42.7%	39.0%	-3.7%
	Unibet	2.32	43.1%	39.0%	-4.1%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.3%	1.53	65.4%	61.0%	-4.4%
	Unibet	1.52	65.8%	61.0%	-4.8%
	William Hill	1.50	66.7%	61.0%	-5.7%
	Marathonbet	1.49	67.1%	61.0%	-6.1%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +0.7%	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Bet365	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Betfair	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Unibet	1.49	67.1%	0.0%	-67.1%
	10Bet	1.48	67.6%	0.0%	-67.6%
	Marathonbet	1.47	68.0%	0.0%	-68.0%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +4.2%	1.48	67.6%	0.0%	-67.6%
	William Hill	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Bet365	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Marathonbet	1.39	71.9%	0.0%	-71.9%
	Unibet	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.9%	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	10Bet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Unibet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%

Model reasoning

Cesena U20 look slightly more effective overall, with more wins (20W vs 12W) and a better goal record (73 scored vs 55). They also concede fewer goals than Verona U20 (55 vs 61), which supports the away side’s edge in the match outcome probabilities. The draw and both-teams-to-score angles are both fairly plausible. Verona U20’s recent form is mixed (WLWLL), while Cesena U20’s is stronger (WLWWL), but both teams have enough scoring output to keep the game open rather than one-sided. The strongest signal in the provided probabilities is both teams to score, at 61.0%, alongside over 2.5 goals at 57.7%. With Verona U20 scoring 55 across 38 matches and Cesena U20 scoring 73 across 40, the matchup profile leans toward goals at both ends, even if the exact balance is uncertain. Confidence is moderate and risk is high (47 confidence, high risk), so BTTS Yes is a reasonable lean rather than a firm expectation, especially given Verona’s lower clean-sheet count (6 vs 9) and the overall closeness between the home win (35.4%) and away win (39.2%) outcomes.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:17 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Hellas Verona U20 predictions · Cesena U20 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.