Pre-match

High risk

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus prediction

Thu, Sep 10, 02:00 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 50/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (LLDDL) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.1 for Hapoel Bnei Musmus (WWLWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 50/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

50/100

Confidence

50/100

Strongest cover

74.8% probability

Risk classification

High

25.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

HIK win49.4%

Draw25.4%

HBM win25.2%

Goals

Over 1.573.6%

Over 2.549.9%

Under 2.550.1%

Both teams to score

Yes52.9%

No47.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

2/15 recent form points

LLDDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.36
Shots on target: Unavailable

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

12/15 recent form points

WWLWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.33
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 1/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Sep 10, 01:04 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 2-3 Hapoel Bnei Musmus

2026-01-30T10:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1-0 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

2025-10-21T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	BetfairBest price +2.3%	3.60	27.8%	25.2%	-2.6%
	1xBet	3.54	28.2%	25.2%	-3.0%
	William Hill	3.50	28.6%	25.2%	-3.4%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	25.2%	-3.4%
	Betano	3.50	28.6%	25.2%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	3.48	28.7%	25.2%	-3.5%
Draw 1X2	William HillBest price +1.0%	3.50	28.6%	25.4%	-3.2%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	25.4%	-3.2%
	Betfair	3.50	28.6%	25.4%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	3.45	29.0%	25.4%	-3.6%
	1xBet	3.45	29.0%	25.4%	-3.6%
	Betano	3.40	29.4%	25.4%	-4.0%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +1.8%	1.89	52.9%	49.4%	-3.5%
	Marathonbet	1.87	53.5%	49.4%	-4.1%
	Betano	1.87	53.5%	49.4%	-4.1%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	49.4%	-4.7%
	William Hill	1.83	54.6%	49.4%	-5.2%
	Bet365	1.83	54.6%	49.4%	-5.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.5%	1.90	52.6%	49.9%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	1.85	54.1%	49.9%	-4.2%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	49.9%	-4.2%
	1xBet	1.85	54.1%	49.9%	-4.2%
	Betano	1.82	54.9%	49.9%	-5.0%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.5%	1.90	52.6%	50.1%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	1.85	54.1%	50.1%	-4.0%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	50.1%	-4.0%
	1xBet	1.85	54.1%	50.1%	-4.0%
	Betano	1.82	54.9%	50.1%	-4.8%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +1.1%	1.98	50.5%	47.1%	-3.4%
	William Hill	1.95	51.3%	47.1%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	1.95	51.3%	47.1%	-4.2%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	47.1%	-4.2%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +3.3%	1.80	55.6%	52.9%	-2.7%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	52.9%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	1.71	58.5%	52.9%	-5.6%
	1xBet	1.71	58.5%	52.9%	-5.6%
Draw or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.6%	1.85	54.1%	0.0%	-54.1%
	Betfair	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	Betano	1.75	57.1%	0.0%	-57.1%
	Marathonbet	1.74	57.5%	0.0%	-57.5%
	1xBet	1.74	57.5%	0.0%	-57.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.8%	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Betano	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	1xBet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetanoBest price +2.0%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	William Hill	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	1xBet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: no qualified value edge clears the fair-price threshold. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 10 Sep 2026 02:16 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.