Pre-match

High risk

FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt prediction

Sat, Sep 12, 01:30 PMMewa Arena

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 57/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

FSV Mainz 05 (DLWLW) project at 2.1 expected goals versus 1.2 for Eintracht Frankfurt (LDLLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 57/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

57/100

Confidence

57/100

Strongest cover

80.3% probability

Risk classification

High

21.5% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

FM0 win58.8%

Draw21.5%

EF win19.7%

Goals

Over 1.584.8%

Over 2.564.2%

Under 2.535.8%

Both teams to score

Yes61.6%

No38.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

FSV Mainz 05

7/15 recent form points

DLWLW

xG / match: 2.41
xGA / match: 0.47
Goals / match: 1.29
Shots on target: Unavailable

Eintracht Frankfurt

2/15 recent form points

LDLLD

xG / match: 2.31
xGA / match: 1.86
Goals / match: 1.79
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

FM0 derived xG

2.14

EF derived xG

1.39

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 3.53. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt

2026-03-22T15:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 FSV Mainz 05

2025-11-09T19:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt

2025-05-04T19:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 FSV Mainz 05

2024-12-21T15:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 FSV Mainz 05

2024-01-26T20:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt

2023-08-27T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 FSV Mainz 05

2023-05-13T15:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt

2022-11-13T15:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Eintracht Frankfurt

2022-05-14T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Eintracht Frankfurt

2022-01-27T01:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Team hubs: FSV Mainz 05 predictions · Eintracht Frankfurt predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.