Finished

High risk

Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur

3–1Full time

Sat, Aug 15, 07:00 PMFortuna Sittard Stadion

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 45/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Fortuna Sittard (DLLWL) project at 2.1 expected goals versus 1.2 for Cambuur (LLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 45/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

45/100

Confidence

45/100

Strongest cover

82.0% probability

Risk classification

High

19.8% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

FS win62.2%

Draw19.8%

C win18%

Goals

Over 1.585%

Over 2.564.5%

Under 2.535.5%

Both teams to score

Yes62.8%

No37.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Fortuna Sittard

4/15 recent form points

DLLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.44
Shots on target: Unavailable

Cambuur

0/9 recent form points

LLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 7/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Fortuna Sittard 3-1 Cambuur

2026-08-15T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Cambuur 1-2 Fortuna Sittard

2023-01-29T16:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Fortuna Sittard 1-4 Cambuur

2022-08-20T18:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Cambuur 2-1 Fortuna Sittard

2022-02-26T21:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Cambuur

2021-10-16T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Fortuna Sittard 2-1 Cambuur

2018-12-19T19:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Fortuna Sittard 3-2 Cambuur

2018-03-23T20:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Cambuur 1-0 Fortuna Sittard

2017-11-17T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Cambuur 1-1 Fortuna Sittard

2017-02-10T20:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Fortuna Sittard 3-0 Cambuur

2016-09-16T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Fortuna Sittard at home have a losing record overall (11W 6D 17L) and a negative goal difference (49 scored, 63 conceded), but their home profile still supports a slight edge in this matchup. Their recent form is mixed, with the sequence DLLWL suggesting inconsistency rather than a strong run. Cambuur’s away sample provided is very small (3 matches, 0W 0D 3L) with only 3 goals scored and 12 conceded, and they have no clean sheets. Their recent form is uniformly poor (LLL), which aligns with the idea that they may struggle to generate offense on the road. The goal-related indicators lean toward a more open game. Fortuna’s season totals (49 scored, 63 conceded) and Cambuur’s conceded goals (12 in 3 away matches) fit the higher likelihood of over 2.5 goals (64.5%) and both teams scoring (62.8%). With home win probability at 62.2% but confidenceScore at 45 and riskLevel marked High, the home win case looks plausible rather than secure, especially given Fortuna’s overall home record and mixed recent results.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 56.9% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1151 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Fortuna Sittard predictions · Cambuur predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.