Live

High risk

Firpo vs LD Alajuelense

1–046′

Fri, Aug 21, 03:00 AMEstadio Jorge Gonzalez

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 42/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Firpo (LW) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.1 for LD Alajuelense (WDWDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 42/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

42/100

Confidence

42/100

Strongest cover

72.8% probability

Risk classification

High

27.2% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

56 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

F win29.2%

Draw27.2%

LA win43.6%

Goals

Over 1.570.9%

Over 2.550.4%

Under 2.549.6%

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%

No44.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Firpo

3/6 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

LD Alajuelense

11/15 recent form points

WDWDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.30
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 21, 01:00 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Firpo 3-4 LD Alajuelense

2024-08-08T02:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +4.6%	3.40	29.4%	27.2%	-2.2%
	Marathonbet	3.35	29.9%	27.2%	-2.7%
	BetVictor	3.30	30.3%	27.2%	-3.1%
	Unibet	3.25	30.8%	27.2%	-3.6%
	Bet365	3.20	31.3%	27.2%	-4.1%
	William Hill	3.00	33.3%	27.2%	-6.1%
Home 1X2	BetVictorBest price +3.7%	3.20	31.3%	29.2%	-2.1%
	Marathonbet	3.12	32.1%	29.2%	-2.9%
	William Hill	3.10	32.3%	29.2%	-3.1%
	Bet365	3.10	32.3%	29.2%	-3.1%
	Unibet	3.00	33.3%	29.2%	-4.1%
	Betfair	3.00	33.3%	29.2%	-4.1%
Away 1X2	Bet365Best price +1.6%	2.10	47.6%	43.6%	-4.0%
	BetVictor	2.10	47.6%	43.6%	-4.0%
	Unibet	2.08	48.1%	43.6%	-4.5%
	William Hill	2.05	48.8%	43.6%	-5.2%
	Betfair	2.05	48.8%	43.6%	-5.2%
	Marathonbet	2.02	49.5%	43.6%	-5.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +1.7%	1.91	52.4%	49.6%	-2.8%
	Bet365	1.90	52.6%	49.6%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	1.87	53.5%	49.6%	-3.9%
	Unibet	1.87	53.5%	49.6%	-3.9%
	BetVictor	1.84	54.3%	49.6%	-4.7%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +4.3%	1.90	52.6%	50.4%	-2.2%
	BetVictor	1.83	54.6%	50.4%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	1.82	54.9%	50.4%	-4.5%
	Betfair	1.80	55.6%	50.4%	-5.2%
	Unibet	1.76	56.8%	50.4%	-6.4%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +2.0%	2.10	47.6%	44.9%	-2.7%
	Unibet	2.08	48.1%	44.9%	-3.2%
	William Hill	2.05	48.8%	44.9%	-3.9%
	BetVictor	2.05	48.8%	44.9%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	2.01	49.8%	44.9%	-4.9%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +0.7%	1.67	59.9%	55.1%	-4.8%
	BetVictor	1.67	59.9%	55.1%	-4.8%
	Marathonbet	1.66	60.2%	55.1%	-5.1%
	Betfair	1.65	60.6%	55.1%	-5.5%
	Unibet	1.64	61.0%	55.1%	-5.9%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.1%	1.65	60.6%	0.0%	-60.6%
	BetVictor	1.65	60.6%	0.0%	-60.6%
	Marathonbet	1.63	61.3%	0.0%	-61.3%
	Betfair	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
	Bet365	1.60	62.5%	0.0%	-62.5%
	Unibet	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.9%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	BetVictor	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.23	81.3%	0.0%	-81.3%
	Unibet	1.23	81.3%	0.0%	-81.3%
Draw or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +1.2%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	BetVictor	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Marathonbet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	Unibet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%

Model reasoning

LD Alajuelense look slightly more likely to edge the match, with away win probability at 43.6% versus 29.2% for Firpo. Firpo’s home sample is small but positive overall, with 1 win and 1 loss, scoring 5 and conceding 2 across two matches. The strongest signal in the numbers is scoring at both ends. Both teams to score is listed at 55.1%, and over 2.5 goals is at 50.4%, suggesting a fairly even chance of a game with multiple goals rather than a low-scoring outcome. Firpo have been solid defensively in their limited home run, keeping 1 clean sheet and conceding only 2, but they also scored 5, so they are not being shut out. Alajuelense’s away profile shows they can score consistently (13 in 10) while still conceding (9 in 10), which supports the idea that Firpo may find chances even if Alajuelense control more of the match. With confidence at 42 and risk marked High, this is best viewed as a plausible but not strong lean toward both teams scoring, rather than a confident prediction.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 21 Aug 2026 01:05 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Firpo predictions · LD Alajuelense predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.