Pre-match

Medium risk

FC Tallinn vs Maardu prediction

Thu, Sep 10, 02:30 PM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 70/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

FC Tallinn (LDLLW) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.6 for Maardu (WLWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 70/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

70/100

Confidence

70/100

Strongest cover

77.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

22.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

FT win31.5%

Draw22.4%

M win46.1%

Goals

Over 1.584.8%

Over 2.570.7%

Under 2.529.3%

Both teams to score

Yes70.1%

No29.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

FC Tallinn

4/15 recent form points

LDLLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.22
Shots on target: Unavailable

Maardu

12/15 recent form points

WLWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.67
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/4 and Over 2.5 in 1/4.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Sep 10, 03:01 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Maardu 1-0 FC Tallinn

2026-08-15T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

FC Tallinn 0-0 Maardu

2026-05-28T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Maardu 1-1 FC Tallinn

2026-04-23T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

FC Tallinn 1-4 Maardu

2026-01-18T13:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +2.6%	4.00	25.0%	22.4%	-2.6%
	Betano	4.00	25.0%	22.4%	-2.6%
	William Hill	3.90	25.6%	22.4%	-3.2%
	Bet365	3.90	25.6%	22.4%	-3.2%
	1xBet	3.90	25.6%	22.4%	-3.2%
	Unibet	3.70	27.0%	22.4%	-4.6%
Home 1X2	William HillBest price +5.0%	3.00	33.3%	31.5%	-1.8%
	Betano	3.00	33.3%	31.5%	-1.8%
	1xBet	2.85	35.1%	31.5%	-3.6%
	Bet365	2.80	35.7%	31.5%	-4.2%
	Betfair	2.80	35.7%	31.5%	-4.2%
	Unibet	2.70	37.0%	31.5%	-5.5%
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +2.1%	2.02	49.5%	46.1%	-3.4%
	Bet365	2.00	50.0%	46.1%	-3.9%
	Unibet	2.00	50.0%	46.1%	-3.9%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	46.1%	-3.9%
	William Hill	1.95	51.3%	46.1%	-5.2%
	Betano	1.90	52.6%	46.1%	-6.5%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +4.3%	3.30	30.3%	29.3%	-1.0%
	Bet365	3.25	30.8%	29.3%	-1.5%
	Unibet	3.10	32.3%	29.3%	-3.0%
	1xBet	3.00	33.3%	29.3%	-4.0%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.3%	1.33	75.2%	70.7%	-4.5%
	1xBet	1.30	76.9%	70.7%	-6.2%
	Betfair	1.29	77.5%	70.7%	-6.8%
	Unibet	1.23	81.3%	70.7%	-10.6%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +5.5%	3.30	30.3%	29.9%	-0.4%
	1xBet	3.18	31.4%	29.9%	-1.5%
	William Hill	2.90	34.5%	29.9%	-4.6%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +0.8%	1.33	75.2%	70.1%	-5.1%
	1xBet	1.33	75.2%	70.1%	-5.1%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	70.1%	-6.8%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.3%	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	1xBet	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	Betano	1.72	58.1%	0.0%	-58.1%
	Bet365	1.70	58.8%	0.0%	-58.8%
	Betfair	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	Unibet	1.57	63.7%	0.0%	-63.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +2.8%	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	William Hill	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	1xBet	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Betano	1.32	75.8%	0.0%	-75.8%
	Bet365	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Unibet	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetanoBest price +2.0%	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	William Hill	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	1xBet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Bet365	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Over 2.5 Goals lean for FC Tallinn vs Maardu. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: no qualified value edge clears the fair-price threshold. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 10 Sep 2026 02:33 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: FC Tallinn predictions · Maardu predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.