Pre-match

High risk

FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction

Sat, Sep 12, 01:30 PMWWK Arena

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 46/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

FC Augsburg (WDWWL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.9 for Bayer Leverkusen (LWWLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 46/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

46/100

Confidence

46/100

Strongest cover

77.2% probability

Risk classification

High

22.8% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

FA win36.5%

Draw22.8%

BL win40.7%

Goals

Over 1.588.7%

Over 2.571%

Under 2.529%

Both teams to score

Yes71.1%

No28.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

FC Augsburg

10/15 recent form points

WDWWL

xG / match: 3.49
xGA / match: 2.17
Goals / match: 1.32
Shots on target: Unavailable

Bayer Leverkusen

7/15 recent form points

LWWLD

xG / match: 3.00
xGA / match: 0.83
Goals / match: 2.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

FA derived xG

2.16

BL derived xG

2.59

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 4.75. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg

2026-04-18T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

FC Augsburg 2-0 Bayer Leverkusen

2025-12-06T15:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 FC Augsburg

2025-04-26T15:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

FC Augsburg 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen

2024-12-14T15:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 FC Augsburg

2024-05-18T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

FC Augsburg 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen

2024-01-13T15:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

FC Augsburg 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen

2023-02-03T20:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg

2022-08-13T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 FC Augsburg

2022-01-22T15:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

FC Augsburg 1-4 Bayer Leverkusen

2021-08-28T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the BTTS Yes lean for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Team hubs: FC Augsburg predictions · Bayer Leverkusen predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.