Finished

High risk

FC Andorra vs AD Ceuta FC result & prediction review

5–1Full time

Sat, Aug 15, 03:00 PMEstadi de la FAF

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 51/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

FC Andorra (LWLLL) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.2 for AD Ceuta FC (WDLWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 51/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

51/100

Confidence

51/100

Strongest cover

73.8% probability

Risk classification

High

26.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

FA win46.6%

Draw26.2%

ACF win27.2%

Goals

Over 1.577%

Over 2.552.2%

Under 2.547.8%

Both teams to score

Yes55.5%

No44.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

FC Andorra

3/15 recent form points

LWLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.48
Shots on target: Unavailable

AD Ceuta FC

10/15 recent form points

WDLWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.21
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/3 and Over 2.5 in 2/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

FC Andorra 5-1 AD Ceuta FC

2026-08-15T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

FC Andorra 0-2 AD Ceuta FC

2026-05-24T16:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

AD Ceuta FC 2-1 FC Andorra

2026-01-04T16:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for FC Andorra vs AD Ceuta FC. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

5-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 46.5% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1804 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:05 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

More predictions

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Team hubs: FC Andorra predictions · AD Ceuta FC predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.