Primeira Liga
Finished
High risk

Famalicao vs Maritimo

12Full time
Sun, Aug 16, 07:30 PMEstádio Municipal de Famalicão

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 35/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Famalicao (DWDDW) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.1 for Maritimo (WWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

35/100

Confidence
35/100

Strongest cover

12

72.0% probability

Risk classification

High

28.0% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

F win38.8%
Draw28%
M win33.2%

Goals

Over 1.570.2%
Over 2.543.4%
Under 2.556.6%

Both teams to score

Yes49.4%
No50.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Famalicao

9/15 recent form points

DWDDW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.24
Shots on target
Unavailable

Maritimo

7/9 recent form points

WWD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.67
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/9 and Over 2.5 in 5/9.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Famalicao 1-2 Maritimo

2026-08-16T21:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Famalicao 3-2 Maritimo

2023-04-22T16:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Maritimo 0-0 Famalicao

2022-11-06T19:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Maritimo 0-1 Famalicao

2022-02-20T16:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Famalicao 0-0 Maritimo

2021-09-18T16:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Maritimo 0-4 Famalicao

2021-03-21T18:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Famalicao 2-1 Maritimo

2020-11-07T19:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Maritimo 3-3 Famalicao

2020-07-25T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Famalicao 1-1 Maritimo

2020-01-19T18:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Famalicao at home have a relatively solid defensive profile, conceding 29 goals in 34 matches and keeping 17 clean sheets. Their recent run includes multiple draws and a win-loss mix (DWDDW), which points more toward controlled games than frequent high-scoring outcomes. Maritimo’s away sample provided is very small (3 matches), but they’ve been hard to beat there with 2 wins and 1 draw, conceding only 3 goals and recording 1 clean sheet. Their recent form (WWD) also suggests they can limit risk, even if the dataset is limited. The goal-related probabilities lean toward fewer goals: over 2.5 goals is at 43.4%, and both teams to score is at 49.4%, both of which are not strong signals for a typical open, high-scoring match. With the under 2.5 goals prediction carrying a 35 confidence score and high risk level, it looks more like a cautious lean than a strong edge. Overall, the matchup profile supports the idea that scoring may be restrained, but the uncertainty is elevated due to Maritimo’s limited away sample and the close balance between draw and either side winning.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-2

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 45.4% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.3761 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sat, 15 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Famalicao predictions · Maritimo predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.