Finished

Medium risk

Ekibastuz vs Jaiyq

3–1Full time

Fri, Aug 14, 12:00 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 72/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Ekibastuz (LLWWW) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.2 for Jaiyq (LWDWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 72/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

72/100

Confidence

72/100

Strongest cover

73.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.4% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

E win46.8%

Draw26.4%

J win26.8%

Goals

Over 1.575.3%

Over 2.549.8%

Under 2.550.2%

Both teams to score

Yes54.2%

No45.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Ekibastuz

9/15 recent form points

LLWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.33
Shots on target: Unavailable

Jaiyq

7/15 recent form points

LWDWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 1/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Ekibastuz 3-1 Jaiyq

2026-08-14T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Jaiyq 0-1 Ekibastuz

2026-05-15T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Ekibastuz at home have a slightly stronger overall record than Jaiyq, with 7 wins from 18 compared to Jaiyq’s 8 wins from 18 overall, but Ekibastuz’s goal record is closer to Jaiyq’s than the win totals suggest. Ekibastuz have scored 24 and conceded 31, while Jaiyq have scored 18 and conceded 23, indicating both sides can be competitive, though Ekibastuz’s defense has been more vulnerable. Recent form leans toward Ekibastuz, with LLWWW in their latest stretch, while Jaiyq’s form is more mixed at LWDWL. That combination of stronger recent results and a relatively balanced season profile supports a home-leaning outcome rather than a clear favorite. The market-style probabilities also point to a tight match: home win 46.8%, draw 26.4%, away win 26.8%. With both teams to score at 54.2% and over 2.5 goals at 49.8%, the game looks more like a moderate-scoring contest than a one-sided affair, which fits the medium risk level behind the home win lean.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-1

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 53.3% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.2346 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:30 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

More predictions

All 1. Division predictions →

Team hubs: Ekibastuz predictions · Jaiyq predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.