Serie A
Pre-match
Medium risk

Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia

Sun, Aug 16, 02:00 PM

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 69/100

Model verdict
Medium risk

Away Win

Chapecoense-sc (LLLDL) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.5 for Bahia (WDDDD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 69/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

69/100

Confidence
69/100

Strongest cover

12

74.0% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.0% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

C win27.1%
Draw26%
B win46.9%

Goals

Over 1.575.5%
Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Chapecoense-sc

1/15 recent form points

LLLDL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.95
Shots on target
Unavailable

Bahia

7/15 recent form points

WDDDD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.32
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 2/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Bahia 2-0 Chapecoense-sc

2026-07-18T00:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Chapecoense-sc 3-1 Bahia

2022-10-01T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bahia 0-1 Chapecoense-sc

2022-06-15T00:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Bahia 3-0 Chapecoense-sc

2021-10-25T01:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Chapecoense-sc 0-2 Bahia

2021-07-04T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Bahia 1-1 Chapecoense-SC

2019-11-07T01:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Chapecoense-SC 0-0 Bahia

2019-07-28T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Bahia 1-0 Chapecoense-sc

2018-11-04T22:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Bahia

2018-07-20T00:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Bahia 0-1 Chapecoense-sc

2017-11-26T22:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Bahia look more likely to take points away, with a stronger overall record than Chapecoense-sc. Bahia’s 8W 9D 5L compares to Chapecoense-sc’s 1W 7D 13L, and Bahia have also conceded fewer goals across the season (25 vs 43), which supports their ability to avoid defeat. The goal profile also leans toward Bahia. Bahia have scored 29 goals to Chapecoense-sc’s 20, while Chapecoense-sc’s low clean-sheet count (1) suggests they have struggled to keep games tight. The matchup probabilities reflect this balance, with away win at 46.9% versus home win at 27.1%. Recent form is mixed but still favorable for Bahia. Chapecoense-sc’s latest run is LLLDL, indicating ongoing difficulties, while Bahia’s is WDDDD, showing steadier results and fewer losses. There’s also a moderate lean toward goals. Over 2.5 goals is at 50.2% and both teams to score at 54.7%, so while Bahia are favored, the game could remain open enough for Chapecoense-sc to contribute.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Sat, 15 Aug 2026 09:30 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Chapecoense-sc predictions · Bahia predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.