Mashuk-KMV vs Kaluga
0–025′
AI prediction
Home Win
Confidence 54/100
Home Win
Mashuk-KMV (DWWWL) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 0.8 for Kaluga (LWDLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 54/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
54/100
Strongest cover
1X
79.0% probability
Risk classification
High
29.3% draw weight
Value status
Pass
No qualified price edge
Market sample
3 sources
23 price observations
Full distribution
Market probabilities
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Evidence ledger
Mashuk-KMV
10/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 1.11
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Kaluga
7/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 0.94
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Matchup xG signal
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/4 and Over 2.5 in 2/4.
Price interpretation
Value read
No qualified edge at this snapshot
None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.
Provenance
Model card
- Version
- livewin-hybrid-v0.6
- Data source
- Licensed live data feed
- Statistics baseline
- 2025 season
- Odds timestamp
- Aug 16, 12:01 PM UTC
- Optional coverage
- H2H available · odds available
- Confidence
- Signal agreement score
- Risk
- High · uncertainty remains
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.
Head-to-Head
Kaluga 3-0 Mashuk-KMV
2026-06-13T15:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Mashuk-KMV 1-1 Kaluga
2026-03-01T12:00:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Kaluga 1-2 Mashuk-KMV
2024-05-11T15:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Mashuk-KMV 0-1 Kaluga
2024-03-30T14:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Odds Comparison
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Away 1X2 | DafabetBest price +6.5% | 4.40 | 22.7% | 21.0% | -1.7% |
| 1xBet | 4.04 | 24.8% | 21.0% | -3.8% | |
| Marathonbet | 3.95 | 25.3% | 21.0% | -4.3% | |
Draw 1X2 | DafabetBest price +0.7% | 3.05 | 32.8% | 29.3% | -3.5% |
| Marathonbet | 3.02 | 33.1% | 29.3% | -3.8% | |
| 1xBet | 3.02 | 33.1% | 29.3% | -3.8% | |
Home 1X2 | 1xBetBest price +1.8% | 1.91 | 52.4% | 49.7% | -2.7% |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 52.9% | 49.7% | -3.2% | |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 54.6% | 49.7% | -4.9% | |
Over 2.5 Totals | MarathonbetBest price | 2.15 | 46.5% | 42.6% | -3.9% |
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 46.5% | 42.6% | -3.9% | |
Under 2.5 Totals | MarathonbetBest price | 1.61 | 62.1% | 57.4% | -4.7% |
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 62.1% | 57.4% | -4.7% | |
Yes BTTS | MarathonbetBest price | 1.91 | 52.4% | 47.6% | -4.8% |
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 52.4% | 47.6% | -4.8% | |
No BTTS | 1xBetBest price +0.9% | 1.77 | 56.5% | 52.4% | -4.1% |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 57.5% | 52.4% | -5.1% | |
Draw or Away Double Chance | MarathonbetBest price | 1.72 | 58.1% | 0.0% | -58.1% |
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 58.1% | 0.0% | -58.1% | |
Home or Away Double Chance | MarathonbetBest price | 1.28 | 78.1% | 0.0% | -78.1% |
| 1xBet | 1.28 | 78.1% | 0.0% | -78.1% | |
Home or Draw Double Chance | MarathonbetBest price | 1.16 | 86.2% | 0.0% | -86.2% |
| 1xBet | 1.16 | 86.2% | 0.0% | -86.2% |
Model reasoning
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Sun, 16 Aug 2026 13:10 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
More predictions
Team hubs: Mashuk-KMV predictions · Kaluga predictions
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.