Finished

High risk

Dila vs Samgurali

2–1Full time

Wed, Aug 26, 03:00 PMTengiz Burjanadze Stadium

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 36/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Dila (WWWW) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1 for Samgurali (WL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 36/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

36/100

Confidence

36/100

Strongest cover

71.4% probability

Risk classification

High

28.6% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

49 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

D win29.1%

Draw28.6%

S win42.3%

Goals

Over 1.571.9%

Over 2.545%

Under 2.555%

Both teams to score

Yes51%

No49%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Dila

12/12 recent form points

WWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Samgurali

3/6 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 26, 12:34 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Dila 2-1 Samgurali

2026-08-26T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Dila 2-3 Samgurali

2026-05-29T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Samgurali 0-1 Dila

2026-04-17T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Dila 2-1 Samgurali

2025-11-26T16:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Samgurali 1-2 Dila

2025-09-19T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Samgurali 0-0 Dila

2025-07-27T14:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Dila 4-3 Samgurali

2025-05-20T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Samgurali 0-1 Dila

2025-04-09T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Dila 2-1 Samgurali

2024-10-20T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Samgurali 0-1 Dila

2024-08-11T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +4.4%	3.25	30.8%	28.6%	-2.2%
	BetVictor	3.20	31.3%	28.6%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	3.12	32.1%	28.6%	-3.5%
	10Bet	3.10	32.3%	28.6%	-3.7%
	William Hill	3.00	33.3%	28.6%	-4.7%
	Bet365	3.00	33.3%	28.6%	-4.7%
Home 1X2	Bet365Best price +1.8%	3.20	31.3%	29.1%	-2.1%
	BetVictor	3.20	31.3%	29.1%	-2.1%
	Marathonbet	3.16	31.6%	29.1%	-2.5%
	10Bet	3.10	32.3%	29.1%	-3.2%
	William Hill	3.10	32.3%	29.1%	-3.2%
	Betfair	3.10	32.3%	29.1%	-3.2%
Away 1X2	10BetBest price +1.2%	2.15	46.5%	42.3%	-4.2%
	Bet365	2.15	46.5%	42.3%	-4.2%
	BetVictor	2.15	46.5%	42.3%	-4.2%
	William Hill	2.10	47.6%	42.3%	-5.3%
	Marathonbet	2.10	47.6%	42.3%	-5.3%
	Betfair	2.10	47.6%	42.3%	-5.3%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +7.0%	2.20	45.5%	45.0%	-0.5%
	Betfair	2.10	47.6%	45.0%	-2.6%
	10Bet	2.00	50.0%	45.0%	-5.0%
	BetVictor	2.00	50.0%	45.0%	-5.0%
	Marathonbet	1.98	50.5%	45.0%	-5.5%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetVictorBest price +3.0%	1.73	57.8%	55.0%	-2.8%
	Marathonbet	1.72	58.1%	55.0%	-3.1%
	10Bet	1.65	60.6%	55.0%	-5.6%
	Bet365	1.65	60.6%	55.0%	-5.6%
	Betfair	1.65	60.6%	55.0%	-5.6%
No BTTS	BetVictorBest price +1.8%	1.91	52.4%	49.0%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	1.87	53.5%	49.0%	-4.5%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	49.0%	-5.1%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +2.8%	1.85	54.1%	51.0%	-3.1%
	BetVictor	1.78	56.2%	51.0%	-5.2%
	Marathonbet	1.77	56.5%	51.0%	-5.5%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +3.2%	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
	BetVictor	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
	Marathonbet	1.58	63.3%	0.0%	-63.3%
	10Bet	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	Bet365	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +2.0%	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Bet365	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	BetVictor	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Marathonbet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
Home or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +2.0%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	BetVictor	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Marathonbet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	10Bet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%

Model reasoning

Dila at home has been very efficient defensively in this small sample, conceding only 2 goals in 4 matches and keeping 2 clean sheets. Their recent form is also strong with four straight wins, and their overall goal record (8 scored, 2 conceded) suggests they can control games rather than open them up. Samu rgurali’s away sample is limited, but they have been relatively tight defensively, conceding just 1 goal in 2 matches and recording a clean sheet. Offensively they’ve scored only 1 goal in those two away games, which points toward a lower scoring profile, especially if Dila’s defense holds. The probabilities lean toward a closer, lower-event match: both teams to score is listed at 51.0%, and over 2.5 goals at 45.0%, which is slightly below the threshold. With Dila’s clean-sheet tendency and Samgurali’s low scoring output, the under 2.5 goals angle fits better than expecting frequent scoring. Even so, the confidence is low (36) and the risk is high because the away team’s sample is only 2 matches and the match outcome is fairly balanced in the draw range. The away win probability (42.3%) also means the game could swing in a way that produces more goals than the under expects.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-1

Pre-kickoff call

Under 2.5 Goals · 57.0%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

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Team hubs: Dila predictions · Samgurali predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.