Finished

Medium risk

Defensores Glew vs Estrella de Berisso

4–0Full time

Mon, Aug 17, 06:00 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 70/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Defensores Glew (DWWWW) project at 2.1 expected goals versus 0.9 for Estrella de Berisso (LLWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 70/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

70/100

Confidence

70/100

Strongest cover

82.4% probability

Risk classification

Medium

25.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

45 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

DG win57%

Draw25.4%

EDB win17.6%

Goals

Over 1.579.8%

Over 2.545%

Under 2.555%

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%

No54.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Defensores Glew

13/15 recent form points

DWWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.55
Shots on target: Unavailable

Estrella de Berisso

6/15 recent form points

LLWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.18
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/5 and Over 2.5 in 2/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 17, 04:32 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Estrella de Berisso 1-1 Defensores Glew

2026-06-23T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Estrella de Berisso 0-3 Defensores Glew

2025-09-26T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Defensores Glew 4-1 Estrella de Berisso

2025-08-31T22:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Estrella de Berisso 1-0 Defensores Glew

2024-09-04T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Defensores Glew 1-1 Estrella de Berisso

2024-04-07T20:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +13.8%	5.40	18.5%	17.6%	-0.9%
	William Hill	4.80	20.8%	17.6%	-3.2%
	Pinnacle	4.79	20.9%	17.6%	-3.3%
	10Bet	4.75	21.1%	17.6%	-3.5%
	Betfair	4.40	22.7%	17.6%	-5.1%
	Bet365	4.33	23.1%	17.6%	-5.5%
Draw 1X2	PinnacleBest price +3.0%	3.48	28.7%	25.4%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	3.44	29.1%	25.4%	-3.7%
	Bet365	3.40	29.4%	25.4%	-4.0%
	10Bet	3.35	29.9%	25.4%	-4.5%
	William Hill	3.30	30.3%	25.4%	-4.9%
	Betfair	3.30	30.3%	25.4%	-4.9%
Home 1X2	BetfairBest price +5.1%	1.73	57.8%	57.0%	-0.8%
	Bet365	1.70	58.8%	57.0%	-1.8%
	10Bet	1.64	61.0%	57.0%	-4.0%
	William Hill	1.62	61.7%	57.0%	-4.7%
	Pinnacle	1.62	61.7%	57.0%	-4.7%
	Marathonbet	1.57	63.7%	57.0%	-6.7%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +5.6%	2.20	45.5%	45.0%	-0.5%
	Pinnacle	2.11	47.4%	45.0%	-2.4%
	Marathonbet	2.02	49.5%	45.0%	-4.5%
	10Bet	2.00	50.0%	45.0%	-5.0%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +1.7%	1.69	59.2%	55.0%	-4.2%
	Pinnacle	1.66	60.2%	55.0%	-5.2%
	10Bet	1.65	60.6%	55.0%	-5.6%
	Bet365	1.65	60.6%	55.0%	-5.6%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +1.5%	2.05	48.8%	45.6%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	1.99	50.3%	45.6%	-4.7%
No BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +0.3%	1.68	59.5%	54.4%	-5.1%
	William Hill	1.67	59.9%	54.4%	-5.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +4.2%	2.11	47.4%	0.0%	-47.4%
	10Bet	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	William Hill	2.05	48.8%	0.0%	-48.8%
	Bet365	1.95	51.3%	0.0%	-51.3%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.8%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Betfair	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	10Bet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +3.9%	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	William Hill	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Bet365	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	10Bet	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	Marathonbet	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%

Model reasoning

Defensores Glew have been strong at both ends of the pitch this season, with 28 goals scored and only 7 conceded across 11 matches, plus 6 clean sheets. Their recent form is also very positive (DWWWW), which supports the idea that they can control the game at home. Estrella de Berisso’s results look more mixed, with 13 goals scored and 16 conceded, and only 3 clean sheets in 11 matches. Their recent form (LLWWL) suggests they can win when things go their way, but they’ve also shown vulnerability in other stretches. The market-style probabilities point to a home edge rather than a clear runaway: Defensores Glew to win is 57.0% versus 25.4% for a draw and 17.6% for an away win. For goals, over 2.5 is only 45.0%, and both teams to score is 45.6%, which implies a moderate chance of a low-to-mid scoring match rather than a guaranteed goal fest. Overall, a Defensores Glew win is the most likely outcome, but the draw and a tighter game remain plausible given Estrella’s ability to pick up wins and the relatively modest likelihood of over 2.5 goals.

Recorded forecast

Final score

4-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 56.8%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

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Team hubs: Defensores Glew predictions · Estrella de Berisso predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.