Finished

High risk

Namungo vs Geita Gold

1–0Full time

Tue, Aug 18, 04:00 PMMajaliwa Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 50/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Namungo (DDWDW) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1 for Geita Gold (WL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 50/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

50/100

Confidence

50/100

Strongest cover

81.8% probability

Risk classification

High

28.8% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

52 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

N win53%

Draw28.8%

GG win18.2%

Goals

Over 1.565.4%

Over 2.538.4%

Under 2.561.6%

Both teams to score

Yes41.4%

No58.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Namungo

9/15 recent form points

DDWDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.83
Shots on target: Unavailable

Geita Gold

3/6 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/6 and Over 2.5 in 2/6.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 18, 12:51 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Namungo 2-0 Geita Gold

2024-05-10T19:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Geita Gold 1-0 Namungo

2023-11-26T12:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Namungo 2-1 Geita Gold

2023-02-26T17:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Geita Gold 2-1 Namungo

2022-10-22T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Geita Gold 1-1 Namungo

2022-02-25T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Namungo 2-0 Geita Gold

2021-09-27T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +11.5%	5.35	18.7%	18.2%	-0.5%
	10Bet	5.00	20.0%	18.2%	-1.8%
	William Hill	5.00	20.0%	18.2%	-1.8%
	Betfair	5.00	20.0%	18.2%	-1.8%
	Bet365	4.50	22.2%	18.2%	-4.0%
	Unibet	3.95	25.3%	18.2%	-7.1%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +6.2%	3.25	30.8%	28.8%	-2.0%
	Marathonbet	3.12	32.1%	28.8%	-3.3%
	10Bet	3.10	32.3%	28.8%	-3.5%
	Bet365	3.00	33.3%	28.8%	-4.5%
	Unibet	3.00	33.3%	28.8%	-4.5%
	William Hill	2.90	34.5%	28.8%	-5.7%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +6.4%	1.83	54.6%	53.0%	-1.6%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	53.0%	-2.6%
	William Hill	1.70	58.8%	53.0%	-5.8%
	10Bet	1.67	59.9%	53.0%	-6.9%
	Betfair	1.67	59.9%	53.0%	-6.9%
	Marathonbet	1.65	60.6%	53.0%	-7.6%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +4.7%	2.50	40.0%	38.4%	-1.6%
	Marathonbet	2.44	41.0%	38.4%	-2.6%
	Betfair	2.40	41.7%	38.4%	-3.3%
	10Bet	2.30	43.5%	38.4%	-5.1%
	Unibet	2.30	43.5%	38.4%	-5.1%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +0.7%	1.50	66.7%	61.6%	-5.1%
	Betfair	1.50	66.7%	61.6%	-5.1%
	Unibet	1.49	67.1%	61.6%	-5.5%
	10Bet	1.48	67.6%	61.6%	-6.0%
	Marathonbet	1.48	67.6%	61.6%	-6.0%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +2.7%	2.29	43.7%	41.4%	-2.3%
	William Hill	2.20	45.5%	41.4%	-4.1%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	41.4%	-4.1%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +2.6%	1.60	62.5%	58.6%	-3.9%
	William Hill	1.57	63.7%	58.6%	-5.1%
	Marathonbet	1.51	66.2%	58.6%	-7.6%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +6.6%	2.05	48.8%	0.0%	-48.8%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Marathonbet	1.98	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5%
	William Hill	1.95	51.3%	0.0%	-51.3%
	Bet365	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	Unibet	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.8%	1.35	74.1%	0.0%	-74.1%
	Bet365	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Marathonbet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	Unibet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	10Bet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	UnibetBest price +2.7%	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	William Hill	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Betfair	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	10Bet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
	Marathonbet	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%

Model reasoning

Namungo at home has a modest record of 7 wins, 13 draws, and 10 losses, with 25 goals scored and 32 conceded across 30 matches. Their recent form is mixed, showing two draws and two wins in the last five results (DDWDW), which supports the idea of them being competitive rather than dominant. Geita Gold’s away sample is extremely small at 2 matches, with 1 win and 1 loss, and only 1 goal scored and 1 conceded. That limited data makes their true strength harder to gauge, but it does suggest they are not consistently outscoring opponents on the road. The market-style probabilities lean toward a Namungo home win at 53.0%, with draws still fairly likely at 28.8%. For goals, over 2.5 is only 38.4% and both teams to score is 41.4%, which points more toward a tighter game where a single-goal margin is plausible rather than a high-scoring contest. With confidence around 50 and a high risk level, the main uncertainty is Geita Gold’s very limited away record and Namungo’s tendency toward draws in their recent run.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 52.5%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

Team hubs: Namungo predictions · Geita Gold predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.