CS Cartagines vs Verdes

40Full time
Wed, Aug 19, 01:00 AM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 46/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

CS Cartagines (WLLWW) project at 2.5 expected goals versus 0.9 for Verdes (LLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 46/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

46/100

Confidence
46/100

Strongest cover

1X

91.1% probability

Risk classification

High

14.7% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

CC win76.4%
Draw14.7%
V win8.9%

Goals

Over 1.585.5%
Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.4%

Both teams to score

Yes55.5%
No44.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

CS Cartagines

9/15 recent form points

WLLWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.25
Shots on target
Unavailable

Verdes

0/12 recent form points

LLLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

CS Cartagines 8-1 Verdes

2025-08-21T04:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

CS Cartagines at home have a stronger overall record than Verdes, with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses across 8 matches, plus 18 goals scored and 9 conceded. They also have 3 clean sheets, which supports the idea they can control games more often than their opponent. Verdes away results look difficult, with 0 wins and 4 losses, scoring only 4 goals while conceding 17. Their recent form is also uniformly poor (LLLL), and they have no clean sheets, which suggests they may struggle to keep the score close. The home win outcome is favored in the probabilities (76.4%), but the confidence is only moderate-to-low (46) and the risk is high, so it’s not a lock. Over 2.5 goals is also more likely than not (65.6%), and both teams to score is slightly more likely than not (55.5%), indicating a game where Verdes could still find chances even if they’re behind. Overall, the matchup profile leans toward CS Cartagines winning at home, with a decent chance of goals, but Verdes’ low scoring and heavy conceding make the result more dependent on how effectively Cartagines convert early opportunities.

Recorded forecast

Final score

4-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 76.4% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.0318 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:04 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: CS Cartagines predictions · Verdes predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.