Finished

Medium risk

Bulleen Lions vs North Sunshine Eagles

2–1Full time

Mon, Aug 17, 10:30 AM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 72/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Bulleen Lions (WWWWW) project at 2 expected goals versus 1 for North Sunshine Eagles (DLDLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 72/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

72/100

Confidence

72/100

Strongest cover

77.9% probability

Risk classification

Medium

22.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

BL win52.8%

Draw22.1%

NSE win25.1%

Goals

Over 1.581.5%

Over 2.564.6%

Under 2.535.4%

Both teams to score

Yes63.6%

No36.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Bulleen Lions

15/15 recent form points

WWWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.88
Shots on target: Unavailable

North Sunshine Eagles

5/15 recent form points

DLDLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.28
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/4 and Over 2.5 in 3/4.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 17, 08:21 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Bulleen Lions 2-1 North Sunshine Eagles

2026-08-17T12:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

North Sunshine Eagles 0-1 Bulleen Lions

2026-05-02T07:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

North Sunshine Eagles 2-1 Bulleen Lions

2025-06-07T07:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bulleen Lions 6-1 North Sunshine Eagles

2025-03-03T10:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +9.3%	4.20	23.8%	22.1%	-1.7%
	Bet365	4.10	24.4%	22.1%	-2.3%
	Unibet	3.90	25.6%	22.1%	-3.5%
	Marathonbet	3.85	26.0%	22.1%	-3.9%
	William Hill	3.60	27.8%	22.1%	-5.7%
	BetVictor	3.40	29.4%	22.1%	-7.3%
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +16.1%	3.90	25.6%	25.1%	-0.5%
	William Hill	3.30	30.3%	25.1%	-5.2%
	Bet365	3.30	30.3%	25.1%	-5.2%
	Betfair	3.30	30.3%	25.1%	-5.2%
	Marathonbet	3.25	30.8%	25.1%	-5.7%
	BetVictor	3.10	32.3%	25.1%	-7.2%
Home 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +4.8%	1.83	54.6%	52.8%	-1.8%
	William Hill	1.80	55.6%	52.8%	-2.8%
	Bet365	1.75	57.1%	52.8%	-4.3%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	52.8%	-4.3%
	BetVictor	1.73	57.8%	52.8%	-5.0%
	Unibet	1.62	61.7%	52.8%	-8.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +9.5%	2.80	35.7%	35.4%	-0.3%
	Bet365	2.62	38.2%	35.4%	-2.8%
	Marathonbet	2.56	39.1%	35.4%	-3.7%
	BetVictor	2.25	44.4%	35.4%	-9.0%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +4.5%	1.44	69.4%	64.6%	-4.8%
	Marathonbet	1.40	71.4%	64.6%	-6.8%
	Unibet	1.34	74.6%	64.6%	-10.0%
	BetVictor	1.33	75.2%	64.6%	-10.6%
No BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +4.3%	2.56	39.1%	36.4%	-2.7%
	William Hill	2.50	40.0%	36.4%	-3.6%
	BetVictor	2.30	43.5%	36.4%	-7.1%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +4.1%	1.44	69.4%	63.6%	-5.8%
	Marathonbet	1.41	70.9%	63.6%	-7.3%
	BetVictor	1.30	76.9%	63.6%	-13.3%
Draw or Away Double Chance	UnibetBest price +5.2%	1.96	51.0%	0.0%	-51.0%
	Bet365	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	William Hill	1.85	54.1%	0.0%	-54.1%
	BetVictor	1.78	56.2%	0.0%	-56.2%
	Marathonbet	1.77	56.5%	0.0%	-56.5%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +3.5%	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	BetVictor	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	William Hill	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Unibet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.3%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	BetVictor	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%

Model reasoning

Bulleen Lions have been strong at home in terms of results, with 13 wins from 25 matches and a positive goal record (47 scored, 31 conceded). They also have a solid defensive profile for the season, including 9 clean sheets, and their very recent form is consistently favorable with five straight wins. North Sunshine Eagles have struggled more overall, with only 6 wins and a negative goal balance (32 scored, 40 conceded). Their away results look tougher as well, and their recent form is mixed to weak, with only one win in the last five results shown. The goal outlook supports the Over 2.5 goals angle. Bulleen’s season scoring rate is relatively healthy, while North Sunshine’s conceded goals suggest they are more likely to allow at least a couple of goals, aligning with the provided over 2.5 probability of 64.6%. The chance that both teams score is also fairly high at 63.6%, which fits a game where North Sunshine can contribute even if they are under pressure. With over 2.5 goals at a medium risk level and a 72 confidence score, the main uncertainty is whether North Sunshine’s scoring output stays low despite Bulleen’s attacking ability. Still, the combined season goal profiles and the recent form tilt the match toward at least three total goals.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-1

Pre-kickoff call

Over 2.5 Goals · 64.6% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1448 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Mon, 17 Aug 2026 10:18 UTC, before kickoff at 1.44 (Bet365), by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Bulleen Lions predictions · North Sunshine Eagles predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.