Bundesliga
Pre-match
High risk

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction

Sat, Sep 19, 01:30 PMBorussia-Park

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 43/100

Model verdict
High risk

BTTS Yes

Borussia Mönchengladbach (DDWLW) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.9 for FSV Mainz 05 (DLWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 43/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

43/100

Confidence
43/100

Strongest cover

12

76.7% probability

Risk classification

High

23.3% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

BM win30.8%
Draw23.3%
FM0 win45.9%

Goals

Over 1.585.3%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%

Both teams to score

Yes65.5%
No34.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Borussia Mönchengladbach

8/15 recent form points

DDWLW
xG / match
2.06
xGA / match
3.40
Goals / match
1.24
Shots on target
Unavailable

FSV Mainz 05

7/15 recent form points

DLWLW
xG / match
2.41
xGA / match
0.47
Goals / match
1.29
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

BM derived xG

1.27

FM0 derived xG

2.91

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 4.17. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05

2026-04-19T19:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

2025-12-05T20:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-3 FSV Mainz 05

2025-03-07T20:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

2024-10-25T20:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Borussia Monchengladbach

2024-03-02T15:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Borussia Monchengladbach 2-2 FSV Mainz 05

2023-10-06T20:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

FSV Mainz 05 4-0 Borussia Monchengladbach

2023-02-24T20:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Borussia Monchengladbach 0-1 FSV Mainz 05

2022-09-04T17:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Borussia Monchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05

2022-04-03T17:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Borussia Monchengladbach

2021-11-05T20:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the BTTS Yes lean for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

Team hubs: Borussia Mönchengladbach predictions · FSV Mainz 05 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.