Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
AI prediction
BTTS Yes
Confidence 43/100
BTTS Yes
Borussia Mönchengladbach (DDWLW) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.9 for FSV Mainz 05 (DLWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 43/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
43/100
Strongest cover
12
76.7% probability
Risk classification
High
23.3% draw weight
Value status
Unpriced
Pre-match odds unavailable
Market sample
Unavailable
No pre-match quotes
Full distribution
Market probabilities
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Evidence ledger
Borussia Mönchengladbach
8/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- 2.06
- xGA / match
- 3.40
- Goals / match
- 1.24
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
FSV Mainz 05
7/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- 2.41
- xGA / match
- 0.47
- Goals / match
- 1.29
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Matchup xG signal
BM derived xG
1.27
FM0 derived xG
2.91
Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 4.17. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.
Price interpretation
Value read
Odds unavailable for this fixture
The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.
Provenance
Model card
- Version
- livewin-hybrid-v0.6
- Data source
- Licensed live data feed
- Statistics baseline
- 2025 season
- Odds timestamp
- No odds available
- Optional coverage
- H2H available · no odds
- Confidence
- Signal agreement score
- Risk
- High · uncertainty remains
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.
Head-to-Head
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05
2026-04-19T19:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
2025-12-05T20:30:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-3 FSV Mainz 05
2025-03-07T20:30:00+01:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
2024-10-25T20:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Borussia Monchengladbach
2024-03-02T15:30:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Borussia Monchengladbach 2-2 FSV Mainz 05
2023-10-06T20:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
FSV Mainz 05 4-0 Borussia Monchengladbach
2023-02-24T20:30:00+01:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Borussia Monchengladbach 0-1 FSV Mainz 05
2022-09-04T17:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Borussia Monchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05
2022-04-03T17:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Borussia Monchengladbach
2021-11-05T20:30:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Recorded forecast
Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.
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Team hubs: Borussia Mönchengladbach predictions · FSV Mainz 05 predictions
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.