Finished

Medium risk

Borussia Dortmund vs AS Roma

2–2Full time

Sat, Aug 15, 03:30 PMSignal Iduna Park

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 68/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Borussia Dortmund (WLLWD) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.2 for AS Roma (DLWLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 68/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

68/100

Confidence

68/100

Strongest cover

75.1% probability

Risk classification

Medium

24.9% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

BD win49.9%

Draw24.9%

AR win25.2%

Goals

Over 1.579%

Over 2.555.1%

Under 2.544.9%

Both teams to score

Yes57.7%

No42.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Borussia Dortmund

7/15 recent form points

WLLWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.40
Shots on target: Unavailable

AS Roma

5/15 recent form points

DLWLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Borussia Dortmund 2-2 AS Roma

2026-08-15T17:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Dortmund at home have a fairly balanced record across their five matches, with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded, plus one clean sheet. Their recent form is mixed (WLLWD), but the goal numbers suggest they can compete defensively while still contributing at the other end. Roma’s away profile is less secure, with 10 goals scored but 13 conceded and no clean sheets in their five matches. Their recent form is also uneven (DLWLD), which aligns with a defense that has struggled to keep opponents out. The overall probabilities point to a slight edge for Dortmund rather than a clear dominance, with home win at 49.9% versus draw at 24.9% and away win at 25.2%. At the same time, the match is more likely to be eventful, with over 2.5 goals at 55.1% and both teams to score at 57.7%, which supports the idea that Dortmund may do better than Roma but the game could still involve goals for both sides.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-2

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 45.0% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.1424 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:06 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Borussia Dortmund predictions · AS Roma predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.