Pre-match

High risk

Bodo/Glimt vs NEC Nijmegen

Tue, Aug 25, 07:00 PMAspmyra Stadion

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 46/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Bodo/Glimt (WWWWL) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.1 for NEC Nijmegen (DWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 46/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

46/100

Confidence

46/100

Strongest cover

77.8% probability

Risk classification

High

24.1% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

B win53.7%

Draw24.1%

NN win22.2%

Goals

Over 1.578.2%

Over 2.553.9%

Under 2.546.1%

Both teams to score

Yes56.2%

No43.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Bodo/Glimt

12/15 recent form points

WWWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

NEC Nijmegen

4/9 recent form points

DWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Bodo/Glimt

2026-08-19T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Bodo/Glimt at home have a fairly balanced but slightly positive profile, with 6 wins in 14 matches and a goal record of 28 scored versus 24 conceded. Their recent run shows four straight wins before a loss, which supports a home edge, even if their clean sheets are limited to 2. NEC Nijmegen’s away sample is small, with 3 matches producing 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, and only 3 goals scored while conceding 4. Their recent form includes a draw followed by a loss, suggesting they may struggle to consistently generate offense on the road. The market-style probabilities point to Bodo/Glimt having the best chance to win (53.7%) versus a draw (24.1%) and NEC winning (22.2%). There’s also a moderate lean toward a more open game, with over 2.5 goals at 53.9% and both teams to score at 56.2%, which can fit a home win scenario without requiring a dominant shutout. Confidence is relatively low (46) and risk is high, likely because NEC’s away dataset is limited and Bodo/Glimt’s overall home defensive record isn’t strong enough to make the outcome feel secure.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Team hubs: Bodo/Glimt predictions · NEC Nijmegen predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.