Pre-match

High risk

Auxerre vs Nice prediction

Sat, Sep 12, 06:45 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 54/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Auxerre (DLWWW) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.4 for Nice (DLDDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 54/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

54/100

Confidence

54/100

Strongest cover

76.6% probability

Risk classification

High

23.4% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

A win50.3%

Draw23.4%

N win26.3%

Goals

Over 1.583.5%

Over 2.562%

Under 2.538%

Both teams to score

Yes63.3%

No36.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Auxerre

10/15 recent form points

DLWWW

xG / match: 1.46
xGA / match: 3.26
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Nice

6/15 recent form points

DLDDW

xG / match: 0.98
xGA / match: 2.06
Goals / match: 1.14
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

A derived xG

1.76

N derived xG

2.12

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 3.88. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 8/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Auxerre 2-1 Nice

2026-05-10T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nice 3-1 Auxerre

2025-08-23T19:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nice 1-1 Auxerre

2025-03-14T20:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Auxerre 2-1 Nice

2024-08-18T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nice 0-0 Auxerre

2024-01-06T20:45:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Nice 1-1 Auxerre

2023-03-03T21:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Auxerre 1-1 Nice

2022-10-16T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Nice 3-2 Auxerre

2018-10-31T18:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nice 1-0 Auxerre

2012-04-21T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Auxerre 2-1 Nice

2011-12-11T17:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Auxerre vs Nice. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Team hubs: Auxerre predictions · Nice predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.