Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna prediction
AI prediction
Home Win
Confidence 42/100
Home Win
Atletico Madrid (WLWWL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.1 for Osasuna (LLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 42/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
42/100
Strongest cover
1X
76.8% probability
Risk classification
High
24.1% draw weight
Value status
Unpriced
Pre-match odds unavailable
Market sample
Unavailable
No pre-match quotes
Full distribution
Market probabilities
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Evidence ledger
Atletico Madrid
9/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- 1.08
- xGA / match
- 1.68
- Goals / match
- 1.63
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Osasuna
0/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- 1.53
- xGA / match
- 1.02
- Goals / match
- 1.16
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Matchup xG signal
AM derived xG
1.05
O derived xG
1.61
Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 2.66. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.
Price interpretation
Value read
Odds unavailable for this fixture
The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.
Provenance
Model card
- Version
- livewin-hybrid-v0.6
- Data source
- Licensed live data feed
- Statistics baseline
- 2025 season
- Odds timestamp
- No odds available
- Optional coverage
- H2H available · no odds
- Confidence
- Signal agreement score
- Risk
- High · uncertainty remains
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.
Head-to-Head
Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid
2026-05-12T21:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna
2025-10-18T21:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Osasuna 2-0 Atletico Madrid
2025-05-15T19:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna
2025-01-12T16:15:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Atletico Madrid 1-4 Osasuna
2024-05-19T19:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Osasuna 0-2 Atletico Madrid
2023-09-28T21:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Atletico Madrid 3-0 Osasuna
2023-05-21T16:15:00+02:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Osasuna 0-1 Atletico Madrid
2023-01-29T16:15:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Osasuna 0-3 Atletico Madrid
2022-02-19T16:15:00+01:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna
2021-11-20T18:30:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Recorded forecast
Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.
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Team hubs: Atletico Madrid predictions · Osasuna predictions
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.