Athletic Club vs Alaves prediction
AI prediction
BTTS Yes
Confidence 50/100
BTTS Yes
Athletic Club (WLLDL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.4 for Alaves (LDWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 50/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
50/100
Strongest cover
12
74.1% probability
Risk classification
High
25.9% draw weight
Value status
Unpriced
Pre-match odds unavailable
Market sample
Unavailable
No pre-match quotes
Full distribution
Market probabilities
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Evidence ledger
Athletic Club
4/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- 1.67
- xGA / match
- 1.71
- Goals / match
- 1.13
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Alaves
7/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- 1.76
- xGA / match
- 0.98
- Goals / match
- 1.16
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Matchup xG signal
AC derived xG
1.33
A derived xG
1.73
Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 3.06. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 1/10.
Price interpretation
Value read
Odds unavailable for this fixture
The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.
Provenance
Model card
- Version
- livewin-hybrid-v0.6
- Data source
- Licensed live data feed
- Statistics baseline
- 2025 season
- Odds timestamp
- No odds available
- Optional coverage
- H2H available · no odds
- Confidence
- Signal agreement score
- Risk
- High · uncertainty remains
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.
Head-to-Head
Alaves 2-4 Athletic Club
2026-05-02T18:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Athletic Club 0-1 Alaves
2025-09-13T18:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Alaves 1-0 Athletic Club
2025-07-22T19:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Athletic Club 1-0 Alaves
2025-05-11T18:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Alaves 1-1 Athletic Club
2024-12-15T16:15:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Athletic Club 2-0 Alaves
2024-03-16T21:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Athletic Club 2-0 Alaves
2024-01-16T21:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Alaves 0-2 Athletic Club
2023-09-22T21:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Athletic Club 1-1 Alaves
2022-08-06T11:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Alaves 0-0 Athletic Club
2022-01-09T18:30:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Recorded forecast
Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.
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Team hubs: Athletic Club predictions · Alaves predictions
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.