Atalanta vs Bologna

Bologna’s away win chance is slightly higher than Atalanta’s home win, with away win at 46.6% versus home win at 27.8% and a draw at 25.6%. Bologna’s recent form also looks steadier, with LDWWD compared with Atalanta’s LDWLD, which supports the lean toward Bologna rather than a home result. In scoring terms, both teams to score is favored at 56.7%, and over 2.5 goals is at 54.0%. That aligns with the overall goal profiles: Atalanta has 51 goals scored and 36 conceded, while Bologna has 49 scored and 46 conceded, suggesting a match where goals are plausible on both sides. The expected goals figures point to a more complex picture. Bologna’s expected goals for (78.44) are notably higher than Atalanta’s (35.07), which supports Bologna’s attacking edge, while Atalanta’s expected goals against (102.64) is much higher than Bologna’s (30.60), indicating Atalanta may struggle defensively in this dataset. With confidenceScore at 46 and riskLevel listed as High, the prediction is not strongly one-sided. The draw remains a meaningful possibility, and the moderate over/BTTS probabilities suggest the game could swing on finishing rather than a clear dominance.