Pre-match

High risk

AS Roma vs Inter prediction

Sat, Sep 19, 04:00 PMStadio Olimpico

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 57/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

AS Roma (WWWWW) project at 2 expected goals versus 1.3 for Inter (DWWDD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 57/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

57/100

Confidence

57/100

Strongest cover

77.4% probability

Risk classification

High

22.6% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AR win54%

Draw22.6%

I win23.4%

Goals

Over 1.585%

Over 2.564.5%

Under 2.535.5%

Both teams to score

Yes63.7%

No36.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

AS Roma

15/15 recent form points

WWWWW

xG / match: 3.82
xGA / match: 0.75
Goals / match: 1.55
Shots on target: Unavailable

Inter

9/15 recent form points

DWWDD

xG / match: 3.10
xGA / match: 1.29
Goals / match: 2.34
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

AR derived xG

2.55

I derived xG

1.93

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 4.48. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Inter 5-2 AS Roma

2026-04-05T20:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

AS Roma 0-1 Inter

2025-10-18T20:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Inter 0-1 AS Roma

2025-04-27T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

AS Roma 0-1 Inter

2024-10-20T20:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

AS Roma 2-4 Inter

2024-02-10T18:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Inter 1-0 AS Roma

2023-10-29T18:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

AS Roma 0-2 Inter

2023-05-06T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Inter 1-2 AS Roma

2022-10-01T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Inter 3-1 AS Roma

2022-04-23T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Inter 2-0 AS Roma

2022-02-08T21:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for AS Roma vs Inter. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

More predictions

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Team hubs: AS Roma predictions · Inter predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.