Cup
Finished
High risk

Araks Ararat vs Cilicia

42Full time
Mon, Aug 24, 12:00 PMAraks Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 35/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Araks Ararat (WL) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.1 for Cilicia (L). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

35/100

Confidence
35/100

Strongest cover

1X

78.5% probability

Risk classification

High

23.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AA win55.3%
Draw23.2%
C win21.5%

Goals

Over 1.575.9%
Over 2.550.7%
Under 2.549.3%

Both teams to score

Yes54.2%
No45.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Araks Ararat

3/6 recent form points

WL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Cilicia

0/3 recent form points

L
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Araks Ararat 4-2 Cilicia

2026-08-24T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Araks Ararat at home has a slight edge in results from the small sample, with 1 win and 1 loss, scoring 2 and conceding 5 across two matches. Their recent form shows a win followed by a loss, suggesting some inconsistency, but they have been able to find goals at least occasionally. Cilicia away has only one match recorded, with a 0-0-1 record and no goals scored, though they did concede just 1. With such limited data, their performance profile looks more fragile, and the lack of scoring output keeps their upside lower. The goal-related probabilities point to a fairly balanced match in scoring terms, with both teams to score at 54.2% and over 2.5 goals at 50.7%. That aligns with Araks Ararat’s higher goals conceded figure, while Cilicia’s low scoring so far makes the “both teams score” outcome slightly more dependent on Cilicia improving. Overall, the home win lean is supported by Araks Ararat’s better win rate and Cilicia’s lack of scoring in their only match, but the confidence is modest (35) and the risk is high given the small number of games.

Recorded forecast

Final score

4-2

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 55.3% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.123 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:03 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Araks Ararat predictions · Cilicia predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.