Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán

Tepatitlán look slightly more likely to win away, with their record reading 15W 15D 10L versus Alebrijes de Oaxaca’s 7W 8D 13L at home. The goal profile also leans Tepatitlán’s way, as they’ve scored 55 and conceded 38, while Alebrijes have scored 36 and conceded 54, suggesting Tepatitlán are generally more effective defensively. The recent form is mixed for both sides, but Tepatitlán’s sequence includes two wins in their last five (DDWWL), while Alebrijes have only one win in their last five (LDLLW). That combination supports the away win lean, though the confidence is only moderate and the risk is high given how close the home win and draw probabilities are. On goals, the matchup points toward a game with at least some scoring, with over 2.5 goals at 50.5% and both teams to score at 55.3%. Alebrijes’ higher goals conceded (54) compared to Tepatitlán’s (38) helps explain why both teams scoring is more likely than not, even if Tepatitlán are the side with the stronger overall balance. Overall, the away win is the most probable outcome at 40.7%, but with a 32.1% home win and 27.2% draw, it’s not a comfortable edge, so the result could swing either way.