Pre-match

Medium risk

Ural U20 vs Rostov U19

Fri, Aug 14, 08:00 AM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 70/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Ural U20 (LLLWL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.5 for Rostov U19 (LDLLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 70/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

70/100

Confidence

70/100

Strongest cover

74.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

25.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

3 sources

23 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

UU win40.9%

Draw25.4%

RU win33.7%

Goals

Over 1.583.6%

Over 2.559.8%

Under 2.540.2%

Both teams to score

Yes63%

No37%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Ural U20

3/15 recent form points

LLLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.22
Shots on target: Unavailable

Rostov U19

4/15 recent form points

LDLLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.61
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/8 and Over 2.5 in 5/8.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 14, 12:28 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Rostov U19 0-0 Ural U20

2026-04-03T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Ural U20 0-6 Rostov U19

2025-09-26T10:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Rostov U19 0-0 Ural U20

2025-05-09T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Ural U20 0-3 Rostov U19

2024-07-05T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Rostov U19 0-3 Ural U20

2024-04-05T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Ural U20 1-2 Rostov U19

2023-07-14T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Rostov U19 2-3 Ural U20

2023-05-12T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Ural U20 2-0 Rostov U19

2023-04-07T10:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	DafabetBest price +0.4%	3.50	28.6%	25.4%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	3.48	28.7%	25.4%	-3.3%
	1xBet	3.48	28.7%	25.4%	-3.3%
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +1.4%	2.71	36.9%	33.7%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	2.66	37.6%	33.7%	-3.9%
	Dafabet	2.65	37.7%	33.7%	-4.0%
Home 1X2	DafabetBest price +1.2%	2.29	43.7%	40.9%	-2.8%
	1xBet	2.26	44.2%	40.9%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	2.24	44.6%	40.9%	-3.7%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price	2.29	43.7%	40.2%	-3.5%
	1xBet	2.29	43.7%	40.2%	-3.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price	1.55	64.5%	59.8%	-4.7%
	1xBet	1.55	64.5%	59.8%	-4.7%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +1.0%	2.50	40.0%	37.0%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	2.45	40.8%	37.0%	-3.8%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.46	68.5%	63.0%	-5.5%
	1xBet	1.46	68.5%	63.0%	-5.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.51	66.2%	0.0%	-66.2%
	1xBet	1.51	66.2%	0.0%	-66.2%
Home or Draw Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	1xBet	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	1xBet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%

Model reasoning

Ural U20 at home have scored 22 in 18 matches but conceded 36, with only 2 clean sheets, which suggests their games often allow the opposition to find goals. Their recent form is mixed to poor (LLLWL), reinforcing some inconsistency in keeping opponents out. Rostov U19 away have scored 29 in 18 matches and conceded 37, with 3 clean sheets. That combination points to a team that can contribute offensively, while still conceding often enough that a low-scoring, one-sided outcome is less likely. The overall goal indicators align with both teams scoring: both teams to score is 63.0%, and over 2.5 goals is 59.8%. With home win 40.9%, draw 25.4%, and away win 33.7%, the match profile leans toward a competitive game where scoring from both sides is plausible rather than guaranteed. So BTTS Yes fits best, but with medium risk since neither side shows strong clean-sheet reliability and Ural’s recent results include multiple losses.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 13 Aug 2026 20:38 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

More predictions

All Youth Championship predictions →

Team hubs: Ural U20 predictions · Rostov U19 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.