Pre-match

High risk

Arkonia U19 vs Górnik Zabrze U19

Fri, Aug 14, 08:00 AM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 52/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Arkonia U19 (DLWWW) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.7 for Górnik Zabrze U19 (LWWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 52/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

52/100

Confidence

52/100

Strongest cover

76.9% probability

Risk classification

High

23.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

5 sources

41 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AU win29.7%

Draw23.1%

GZU win47.2%

Goals

Over 1.583.9%

Over 2.562.8%

Under 2.537.2%

Both teams to score

Yes64.1%

No35.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Arkonia U19

10/15 recent form points

DLWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.33
Shots on target: Unavailable

Górnik Zabrze U19

12/15 recent form points

LWWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.27
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/2 and Over 2.5 in 0/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 14, 12:00 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Arkonia U19 0-1 Górnik Zabrze U19

2026-04-25T12:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Górnik Zabrze U19 2-0 Arkonia U19

2025-10-12T11:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	DafabetBest price +1.5%	3.85	26.0%	23.1%	-2.9%
	Bet365	3.80	26.3%	23.1%	-3.2%
	Betfair	3.80	26.3%	23.1%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	3.76	26.6%	23.1%	-3.5%
	1xBet	3.76	26.6%	23.1%	-3.5%
Home 1X2	DafabetBest price +1.1%	3.05	32.8%	29.7%	-3.1%
	1xBet	3.04	32.9%	29.7%	-3.2%
	Bet365	3.00	33.3%	29.7%	-3.6%
	Betfair	3.00	33.3%	29.7%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	2.99	33.4%	29.7%	-3.7%
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +0.8%	1.97	50.8%	47.2%	-3.6%
	Bet365	1.95	51.3%	47.2%	-4.1%
	Marathonbet	1.95	51.3%	47.2%	-4.1%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	47.2%	-4.1%
	Dafabet	1.95	51.3%	47.2%	-4.1%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.2%	2.50	40.0%	37.2%	-2.8%
	Marathonbet	2.49	40.2%	37.2%	-3.0%
	1xBet	2.49	40.2%	37.2%	-3.0%
	Betfair	2.40	41.7%	37.2%	-4.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.7%	1.50	66.7%	62.8%	-3.9%
	Betfair	1.50	66.7%	62.8%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	1.42	70.4%	62.8%	-7.6%
	1xBet	1.42	70.4%	62.8%	-7.6%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +4.2%	2.66	37.6%	35.9%	-1.7%
	Marathonbet	2.60	38.5%	35.9%	-2.6%
	Betfair	2.40	41.7%	35.9%	-5.8%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +4.7%	1.50	66.7%	64.1%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	1.40	71.4%	64.1%	-7.3%
	1xBet	1.40	71.4%	64.1%	-7.3%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +2.2%	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Bet365	1.70	58.8%	0.0%	-58.8%
	Marathonbet	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	1xBet	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +2.1%	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Bet365	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Marathonbet	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	1xBet	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +2.5%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Bet365	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Marathonbet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	1xBet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%

Model reasoning

Górnik Zabrze U19 look more likely to take points, with a stronger overall record (18W 5D 7L) and higher scoring output (68 goals vs Arkonia’s 40). Their recent form is also more convincing, with four wins in their last five matches, while Arkonia’s run includes a loss and a draw. Even with Arkonia’s weaker record, the match profile points toward goals at both ends. Arkonia have conceded 50 in 30 matches and kept 7 clean sheets, while Górnik have conceded 47 and also have 7 clean sheets, suggesting neither side is consistently shut out. That combination aligns with the BTTS Yes lean, supported by the provided both teams to score probability of 64.1%. The over 2.5 goals probability is even higher at 62.8%, which fits a scenario where at least one team scores multiple times. The confidence is moderate (52) and the risk is high, so this is better viewed as a goals-driven expectation rather than a firm outcome, especially given Arkonia’s mixed recent form (DLWWW).

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 14 Aug 2026 00:37 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Arkonia U19 predictions · Górnik Zabrze U19 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.