Pre-match

High risk

Alaves vs Valencia prediction

Tue, Sep 15, 06:00 PMEstadio Mendizorrotza

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 54/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Alaves (LDWWL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1 for Valencia (LWDWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 54/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

54/100

Confidence

54/100

Strongest cover

79.8% probability

Risk classification

High

24.3% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

A win55.5%

Draw24.3%

V win20.2%

Goals

Over 1.577.2%

Over 2.552.6%

Under 2.547.4%

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%

No47.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Alaves

7/15 recent form points

LDWWL

xG / match: 1.76
xGA / match: 0.98
Goals / match: 1.16
Shots on target: Unavailable

Valencia

10/15 recent form points

LWDWW

xG / match: 0.81
xGA / match: 1.92
Goals / match: 1.21
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

A derived xG

1.84

V derived xG

0.90

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 2.73. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Valencia 3-2 Alaves

2026-03-08T21:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Alaves 0-0 Valencia

2025-10-20T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Alaves 1-0 Valencia

2025-05-14T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Valencia 2-2 Alaves

2024-12-22T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Valencia 0-1 Alaves

2024-07-24T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Valencia 0-1 Alaves

2024-05-05T18:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Alaves 1-0 Valencia

2023-09-02T18:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Valencia 2-0 Alaves

2023-07-29T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Alaves 2-1 Valencia

2022-02-13T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Valencia 3-0 Alaves

2021-08-27T22:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Alaves vs Valencia. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

More predictions

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Team hubs: Alaves predictions · Valencia predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.