Finished

High risk

Al Sulaibikhat vs Sporty

3–0Full time

Tue, Aug 11, 05:25 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 58/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Al Sulaibikhat (DWWDW) project at 2.3 expected goals versus 0.7 for Sporty (WLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 58/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

58/100

Confidence

58/100

Strongest cover

95.4% probability

Risk classification

High

12.9% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

47 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AS win82.5%

Draw12.9%

S win4.6%

Goals

Over 1.579.9%

Over 2.559%

Under 2.541%

Both teams to score

Yes36.6%

No63.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Al Sulaibikhat

11/15 recent form points

DWWDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Sporty

3/15 recent form points

WLLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.44
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/3 and Over 2.5 in 1/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 11, 12:00 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Al Sulaibikhat 3-0 Sporty

2026-08-11T19:25:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Sporty 0-1 Al Sulaibikhat

2026-01-22T14:25:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Sulaibikhat 2-0 Sporty

2025-10-04T19:10:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	William HillBest price +22.9%	21.00	4.8%	4.6%	-0.2%
	BetVictor	19.00	5.3%	4.6%	-0.7%
	Marathonbet	18.50	5.4%	4.6%	-0.8%
	10Bet	18.00	5.6%	4.6%	-1.0%
	Bet365	13.00	7.7%	4.6%	-3.1%
	Betfair	13.00	7.7%	4.6%	-3.1%
Draw 1X2	BetVictorBest price +10.8%	7.00	14.3%	12.9%	-1.4%
	Marathonbet	6.65	15.0%	12.9%	-2.1%
	Bet365	6.50	15.4%	12.9%	-2.5%
	William Hill	6.00	16.7%	12.9%	-3.8%
	Betfair	6.00	16.7%	12.9%	-3.8%
	10Bet	5.75	17.4%	12.9%	-4.5%
Home 1X2	BetfairBest price +2.1%	1.15	87.0%	82.5%	-4.5%
	William Hill	1.14	87.7%	82.5%	-5.2%
	Bet365	1.14	87.7%	82.5%	-5.2%
	10Bet	1.12	89.3%	82.5%	-6.8%
	BetVictor	1.11	90.1%	82.5%	-7.6%
	Marathonbet	1.10	90.9%	82.5%	-8.4%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetVictorBest price +5.1%	2.38	42.0%	41.0%	-1.0%
	Bet365	2.30	43.5%	41.0%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	2.29	43.7%	41.0%	-2.7%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	41.0%	-4.5%
	10Bet	2.15	46.5%	41.0%	-5.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.3%	1.60	62.5%	59.0%	-3.5%
	Betfair	1.60	62.5%	59.0%	-3.5%
	10Bet	1.55	64.5%	59.0%	-5.5%
	Marathonbet	1.54	64.9%	59.0%	-5.9%
	BetVictor	1.53	65.4%	59.0%	-6.4%
Yes BTTS	BetVictorBest price +6.6%	2.70	37.0%	36.6%	-0.4%
	Marathonbet	2.63	38.0%	36.6%	-1.4%
	William Hill	2.40	41.7%	36.6%	-5.1%
	Betfair	2.40	41.7%	36.6%	-5.1%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +4.7%	1.50	66.7%	63.4%	-3.3%
	William Hill	1.44	69.4%	63.4%	-6.0%
	BetVictor	1.40	71.4%	63.4%	-8.0%
	Marathonbet	1.39	71.9%	63.4%	-8.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +6.5%	5.00	20.0%	0.0%	-20.0%
	Marathonbet	4.95	20.2%	0.0%	-20.2%
	Betfair	4.50	22.2%	0.0%	-22.2%
	Bet365	4.33	23.1%	0.0%	-23.1%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.8%	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	Betfair	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	Bet365	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%
	Marathonbet	1.04	96.2%	0.0%	-96.2%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +1.0%	1.03	97.1%	0.0%	-97.1%
	William Hill	1.02	98.0%	0.0%	-98.0%
	Bet365	1.01	99.0%	0.0%	-99.0%

Model reasoning

Al Sulaibikhat at home looks stronger across the core results and goal profile. They have 12 wins from 18 matches with 36 goals scored and only 15 conceded, plus 6 clean sheets, while Sporty have just 1 win from 18 with 8 goals scored and 37 conceded and only 1 clean sheet. The recent form also leans toward the home side. Al Sulaibikhat’s last five results are DWWDW, showing more consistency in avoiding losses, whereas Sporty’s last five are WLLLL, indicating they have struggled to generate points and to keep games competitive. This matchup aligns with the goal expectations as well. With Al Sulaibikhat’s strong defense (15 conceded) and Sporty’s weak scoring/defense balance (8 scored, 37 conceded), the likelihood of over 2.5 total goals is relatively higher, and the chance of both teams scoring is lower than a typical even game. Even so, the confidence is not extreme and the risk is high because Sporty’s away record is very poor but football outcomes can still swing on game state. The probabilities provided suggest an Al Sulaibikhat home win is the most likely outcome, with a draw as a meaningful alternative and a lower but non-zero chance of an away win.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 82.5% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.0164 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Tue, 11 Aug 2026 17:08 UTC, before kickoff at 1.15 (Betfair), by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Al Sulaibikhat predictions · Sporty predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.