Pro League U23
Finished
High risk

Al Sharjah U23 vs Al Dhafra U23

51Full time
Sun, Aug 16, 02:10 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 54/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Al Sharjah U23 (DWDDW) project at 2.1 expected goals versus 1 for Al Dhafra U23 (DLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 54/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

54/100

Confidence
54/100

Strongest cover

1X

85.9% probability

Risk classification

High

19.3% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

ASU win66.6%
Draw19.3%
ADU win14.1%

Goals

Over 1.582.7%
Over 2.560.8%
Under 2.539.2%

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Al Sharjah U23

9/15 recent form points

DWDDW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Al Dhafra U23

1/15 recent form points

DLLLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.38
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/3 and Over 2.5 in 2/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Al Sharjah U23 5-1 Al Dhafra U23

2026-08-16T16:10:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Sharjah U23 2-0 Al Dhafra U23

2026-01-29T14:15:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Dhafra U23 1-2 Al Sharjah U23

2025-10-18T14:05:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Al Sharjah U23 look more likely to win at home, with a stronger overall record of 15W 6D 5L compared with Al Dhafra U23’s 7W 8D 11L. Sharjah also has the clearer goal profile, scoring 52 and conceding 28, while Dhafra scores 36 and concedes 44, suggesting Sharjah can create and control more of the match. The recent form supports that direction, with Sharjah’s run reading DWDDW versus Dhafra’s DLLLL. Sharjah’s 6 clean sheets also point to better defensive stability than Dhafra’s 3, which can matter if the game stays tight early. There’s still meaningful uncertainty, reflected in the relatively high draw probability (19.3%) and the high-risk label. Dhafra’s away record includes 7 wins, so they are not completely without threat, even if their overall form is weaker. For goals, the matchup leans toward over 2.5 goals (60.8%) and both teams to score (57.1%). With Sharjah’s stronger attack and Dhafra conceding more, the game could produce scoring on both sides, though the exact scoreline is not assured.

Recorded forecast

Final score

5-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 66.5% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.0662 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sun, 16 Aug 2026 14:02 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Al Sharjah U23 predictions · Al Dhafra U23 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.