Pre-match

High risk

Genoa vs Napoli

Sat, Aug 22, 06:45 PMStadio Luigi Ferraris

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 47/100

Model verdict

High risk

Away Win

Genoa (LDDLL) project at 1.1 expected goals versus 1.3 for Napoli (WDLWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 47/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

47/100

Confidence

47/100

Strongest cover

72.5% probability

Risk classification

High

27.5% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

G win27.9%

Draw27.5%

N win44.6%

Goals

Over 1.571.3%

Over 2.544.7%

Under 2.555.3%

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%

No49.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Genoa

2/15 recent form points

LDDLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.08
Shots on target: Unavailable

Napoli

10/15 recent form points

WDLWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.53
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 8/10 and Over 2.5 in 9/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Genoa 2-3 Napoli

2026-02-07T18:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Napoli 2-1 Genoa

2025-10-05T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Napoli 2-2 Genoa

2025-05-11T20:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Genoa 1-2 Napoli

2024-12-21T18:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Napoli 1-1 Genoa

2024-02-17T15:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Genoa 2-2 Napoli

2023-09-16T20:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Napoli 3-0 Genoa

2022-05-15T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Genoa 1-2 Napoli

2021-08-29T18:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Genoa 2-1 Napoli

2021-02-06T20:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Napoli 6-0 Genoa

2020-09-27T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Napoli’s away profile looks stronger than Genoa’s home results. Genoa have 10 wins, 11 draws, and 17 losses at home, while Napoli have 23 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses overall, with a better goal record (58 scored vs 41) and fewer goals conceded (36 vs 51). The recent form also leans Napoli. Genoa’s latest run is LDDLL, which suggests limited momentum, whereas Napoli’s is WDLWW, including multiple wins and more consistent results. In terms of match dynamics, both teams to score is slightly favored (50.6%), and over 2.5 goals is close to a coin flip (44.7%). That combination fits a game where Napoli can edge the result, but Genoa still have a reasonable chance to contribute offensively. Overall, the away win case is supported by Napoli’s stronger season record and better recent form, but the confidence is moderate (47) and the risk is high, reflecting the relatively balanced draw probability (27.5%) and the uncertainty around goals (over 2.5 at 44.7%).

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

Team hubs: Genoa predictions · Napoli predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.