Finished

Medium risk

Aguai U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20

0–4Full time

Tue, Aug 11, 06:00 PM

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 72/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

Aguai U20 (LLLLL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.6 for EC São Bernardo U20 (LDLDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 72/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

72/100

Confidence

72/100

Strongest cover

80.9% probability

Risk classification

Medium

24.2% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AU win19.1%

Draw24.2%

ESB win56.7%

Goals

Over 1.579.3%

Over 2.552.4%

Under 2.547.6%

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%

No47.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Aguai U20

0/15 recent form points

LLLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.91
Shots on target: Unavailable

EC São Bernardo U20

5/15 recent form points

LDLDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.20
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 2/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 11, 04:24 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Aguai U20 0-4 EC São Bernardo U20

2026-08-11T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

EC São Bernardo U20 5-1 Aguai U20

2025-06-20T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +7.5%	4.90	20.4%	19.1%	-1.3%
	Betfair	4.75	21.1%	19.1%	-2.0%
	10Bet	4.60	21.7%	19.1%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	4.60	21.7%	19.1%	-2.6%
	Bet365	4.50	22.2%	19.1%	-3.1%
	William Hill	4.00	25.0%	19.1%	-5.9%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +4.6%	3.75	26.7%	24.2%	-2.5%
	Unibet	3.70	27.0%	24.2%	-2.8%
	Betfair	3.70	27.0%	24.2%	-2.8%
	10Bet	3.55	28.2%	24.2%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	3.52	28.4%	24.2%	-4.2%
	William Hill	3.30	30.3%	24.2%	-6.1%
Away 1X2	William HillBest price +5.3%	1.70	58.8%	56.7%	-2.1%
	Marathonbet	1.64	61.0%	56.7%	-4.3%
	10Bet	1.62	61.7%	56.7%	-5.0%
	Bet365	1.60	62.5%	56.7%	-5.8%
	Betfair	1.57	63.7%	56.7%	-7.0%
	Unibet	1.56	64.1%	56.7%	-7.4%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +6.5%	2.05	48.8%	47.6%	-1.2%
	Unibet	1.94	51.5%	47.6%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	1.86	53.8%	47.6%	-6.2%
	10Bet	1.85	54.1%	47.6%	-6.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +4.1%	1.83	54.6%	52.4%	-2.2%
	10Bet	1.75	57.1%	52.4%	-4.7%
	Bet365	1.75	57.1%	52.4%	-4.7%
	Unibet	1.70	58.8%	52.4%	-6.4%
No BTTS	UnibetBest price +1.4%	1.93	51.8%	47.6%	-4.2%
	William Hill	1.91	52.4%	47.6%	-4.8%
	Marathonbet	1.87	53.5%	47.6%	-5.9%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +0.8%	1.77	56.5%	52.4%	-4.1%
	William Hill	1.75	57.1%	52.4%	-4.7%
	Unibet	1.75	57.1%	52.4%	-4.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +5.4%	2.20	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5%
	10Bet	2.15	46.5%	0.0%	-46.5%
	Bet365	2.15	46.5%	0.0%	-46.5%
	Unibet	2.07	48.3%	0.0%	-48.3%
	Marathonbet	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	William Hill	1.95	51.3%	0.0%	-51.3%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.6%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	Bet365	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	10Bet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Unibet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +6.0%	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Betfair	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Marathonbet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	10Bet	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	Unibet	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%

Model reasoning

EC São Bernardo U20 look more likely to win away, with a stronger overall record of 2W 4D 4L compared to Aguai U20’s 2W 2D 7L. The away side has also conceded fewer goals overall (15 vs 31), which supports a more controlled match profile. In recent form, Aguai U20 have struggled, with five straight losses in their latest run. São Bernardo U20’s recent results are mixed but better, including a win in their most recent five, which aligns with the higher away-win probability. The goal outlook is fairly balanced: both teams to score is estimated at 52.4%, and over 2.5 goals is also at 52.4%. That suggests the match could be competitive rather than one-sided, even if São Bernardo U20 are favored to take the points. With away win at 56.7% and a medium risk level, the edge for São Bernardo U20 is meaningful but not decisive, so a draw remains a plausible alternative.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-4

Pre-kickoff call

Away Win · 57.0% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1103 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Tue, 11 Aug 2026 17:26 UTC, before kickoff at 1.64 (1xBet), by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

More predictions

All Paulista - U20 predictions →

Team hubs: Aguai U20 predictions · EC São Bernardo U20 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.