Pre-match

High risk

1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen prediction

Sat, Sep 12, 04:30 PMRheinEnergieStadion

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 56/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

1. FC Köln (DLDLL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.2 for Werder Bremen (WDLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 56/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

56/100

Confidence

56/100

Strongest cover

75.8% probability

Risk classification

High

24.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

1FK win51.6%

Draw24.2%

WB win24.2%

Goals

Over 1.581.1%

Over 2.558.2%

Under 2.541.8%

Both teams to score

Yes59.3%

No40.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

1. FC Köln

2/15 recent form points

DLDLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.44
Shots on target: Unavailable

Werder Bremen

4/15 recent form points

WDLLL

xG / match: 0.90
xGA / match: 1.98
Goals / match: 1.09
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 8/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

1. FC Köln 3-1 Werder Bremen

2026-04-12T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Werder Bremen 1-1 1. FC Köln

2025-11-29T15:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

1. FC Köln 0-1 Werder Bremen

2024-02-16T20:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Werder Bremen 2-1 1. FC Köln

2023-09-23T18:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Werder Bremen 1-1 1. FC Köln

2023-05-20T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

1. FC Köln 7-1 Werder Bremen

2023-01-21T18:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder Bremen

2021-03-07T15:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Werder Bremen 1-1 1. FC Köln

2020-11-06T20:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Werder Bremen 6-1 1. FC Köln

2020-06-27T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

1. FC Köln 1-0 Werder Bremen

2019-12-21T15:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

More predictions

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Team hubs: 1. FC Köln predictions · Werder Bremen predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.