Pre-match

High risk

Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba prediction

Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 PM

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 70/100

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Vasco DA Gama (DLLWL) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.3 for Coritiba (WDWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 70/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

70/100

Confidence

70/100

Strongest cover

71.4% probability

Risk classification

High

28.6% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

VDG win34.5%

Draw28.6%

C win36.9%

Goals

Over 1.571.6%

Over 2.545%

Under 2.555%

Both teams to score

Yes51.2%

No48.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Vasco DA Gama

4/15 recent form points

DLLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.08
Shots on target: Unavailable

Coritiba

10/15 recent form points

WDWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.31
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Coritiba 1-1 Vasco DA Gama

2026-04-02T01:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Vasco DA Gama 5-1 Coritiba

2023-09-22T00:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Coritiba 1-1 Vasco DA Gama

2023-05-12T00:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Coritiba

2021-10-16T21:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Coritiba 1-1 Vasco DA Gama

2021-07-14T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Coritiba

2021-01-17T01:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Coritiba 1-0 Vasco DA Gama

2020-09-20T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Coritiba

2017-10-21T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Coritiba 2-2 Vasco DA Gama

2017-07-03T00:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Coritiba 0-0 Vasco DA Gama

2015-12-06T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Under 2.5 Goals lean for Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Team hubs: Vasco DA Gama predictions · Coritiba predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.