Pre-match

High risk

Value +28.4%

Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme

Wed, Aug 26, 03:00 PMNarva Kalev-Fama staadion

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 35/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Trans Narva (WWWWL) project at 2.1 expected goals versus 1.2 for Kalju Nomme (WL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped. The strongest fair-price edge is Home or Draw at 28.4 percentage points.

Confidence

35/100

Confidence

35/100

Strongest cover

73.9% probability

Risk classification

High

26.1% draw weight

Value status

Home or Draw

+28.4 pp vs market

Market sample

6 sources

52 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

TN win29.4%

Draw26.1%

KN win44.5%

Goals

Over 1.584.2%

Over 2.554%

Under 2.546%

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%

No41.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Trans Narva

12/15 recent form points

WWWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 4.40
Shots on target: Unavailable

Kalju Nomme

3/6 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 3.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Double Chance · 10Bet

Home or Draw

Model edge

+28.4 pp

Model: 55.5%
Market fair: 27.2%
Price: 2.10

The model assigns this outcome a higher chance than the margin-adjusted market view. Its model-fair price is 1.80 versus 2.10 offered. That is a disagreement with the market, not a promise of profit.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Trans Narva 0-2 Kalju Nomme

2026-08-08T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Trans Narva 0-3 Kalju Nomme

2026-05-01T13:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Kalju Nomme 2-1 Trans Narva

2026-04-03T13:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Trans Narva 0-0 Kalju Nomme

2025-09-17T16:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Kalju Nomme 1-2 Trans Narva

2025-08-17T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Kalju Nomme 2-0 Trans Narva

2025-06-15T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Trans Narva 1-2 Kalju Nomme

2025-04-19T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Kalju Nomme 0-1 Trans Narva

2025-01-29T11:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Kalju Nomme 2-2 Trans Narva

2024-10-20T11:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Trans Narva 2-2 Kalju Nomme

2024-07-13T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	10BetBest price +31.7%	4.20	23.8%	29.4%	+5.6%
	Marathonbet	3.14	31.8%	29.4%	-2.4%
	Unibet	3.10	32.3%	29.4%	-2.9%
	Bet365	3.00	33.3%	29.4%	-3.9%
	William Hill	2.90	34.5%	29.4%	-5.1%
	Betfair	2.80	35.7%	29.4%	-6.3%
Draw 1X2	10BetBest price +7.4%	3.60	27.8%	26.1%	-1.7%
	Betfair	3.50	28.6%	26.1%	-2.5%
	Bet365	3.40	29.4%	26.1%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	3.32	30.1%	26.1%	-4.0%
	William Hill	3.30	30.3%	26.1%	-4.2%
	Unibet	3.00	33.3%	26.1%	-7.2%
Away 1X2	BetfairBest price +7.4%	2.15	46.5%	44.5%	-2.0%
	Unibet	2.08	48.1%	44.5%	-3.6%
	William Hill	2.05	48.8%	44.5%	-4.3%
	Bet365	2.05	48.8%	44.5%	-4.3%
	Marathonbet	2.03	49.3%	44.5%	-4.8%
	10Bet	1.65	60.6%	44.5%	-16.1%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +5.7%	2.10	47.6%	46.0%	-1.6%
	Marathonbet	2.07	48.3%	46.0%	-2.3%
	Bet365	2.05	48.8%	46.0%	-2.8%
	10Bet	1.90	52.6%	46.0%	-6.6%
	Unibet	1.81	55.2%	46.0%	-9.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +5.7%	1.82	54.9%	54.0%	-0.9%
	Bet365	1.75	57.1%	54.0%	-3.1%
	10Bet	1.73	57.8%	54.0%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	1.66	60.2%	54.0%	-6.2%
	Betfair	1.65	60.6%	54.0%	-6.6%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.2%	2.25	44.4%	41.1%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	2.22	45.0%	41.1%	-3.9%
	William Hill	2.20	45.5%	41.1%	-4.4%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +0.6%	1.57	63.7%	58.9%	-4.8%
	Betfair	1.57	63.7%	58.9%	-4.8%
	Marathonbet	1.54	64.9%	58.9%	-6.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	10BetBest price +23.5%	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	Bet365	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	William Hill	1.65	60.6%	0.0%	-60.6%
	Marathonbet	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
	Betfair	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
	Unibet	1.54	64.9%	0.0%	-64.9%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +6.9%	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	William Hill	1.35	74.1%	0.0%	-74.1%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Marathonbet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	Unibet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	10Bet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.6%	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Unibet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	10Bet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%

Model reasoning

Kalju Nomme’s away record is slightly stronger than Trans Narva’s home record in this sample, with Kalju having 44.5% for an away win versus 29.4% for a home win. The draw is also plausible at 26.1%, so the match profile leans toward a result that isn’t clearly one-sided. Both teams’ scoring likelihood points toward goals at both ends. The both teams to score probability is 58.9%, and the over 2.5 goals probability is 54.0%, suggesting a moderate chance of a multi-goal game rather than a low-scoring stalemate. Trans Narva have been very strong defensively in their 5 matches, conceding only 4 goals and keeping 3 clean sheets, but their recent form includes a loss in the latest run (WWWWL). Kalju Nomme have scored 6 in 2 matches and conceded 2, yet they have 0 clean sheets, which keeps the door open for Trans Narva to score. With BTTS Yes priced as the main angle and a relatively low confidence score (35) plus a high risk level, this looks like a bet that depends on both sides finding goals despite Trans Narva’s clean-sheet ability. The value bet shown also suggests the market may be underpricing the possibility of Trans Narva avoiding defeat (Home or Draw).

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 26 Aug 2026 13:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.