Pre-match

Medium risk

Tirol U20 vs Ceará U20

Fri, Aug 21, 12:30 PM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 63/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Tirol U20 (WDWWD) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.2 for Ceará U20 (DWWWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 63/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

63/100

Confidence

63/100

Strongest cover

74.3% probability

Risk classification

Medium

25.7% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

32 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

TU win29.8%

Draw25.7%

CU win44.5%

Goals

Over 1.575.5%

Over 2.553.3%

Under 2.546.7%

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%

No42.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Tirol U20

11/15 recent form points

WDWWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.60
Shots on target: Unavailable

Ceará U20

11/15 recent form points

DWWWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.60
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/5 and Over 2.5 in 4/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 21, 06:00 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Ceará U20 1-1 Tirol U20

2026-08-08T14:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Tirol U20 2-2 Ceará U20

2025-06-26T23:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tirol U20 2-2 Ceará U20

2025-06-26T23:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Ceará U20 3-1 Tirol U20

2024-07-06T14:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tirol U20 2-1 Ceará U20

2024-06-28T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +7.2%	3.70	27.0%	25.7%	-1.3%
	Bet365	3.40	29.4%	25.7%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	3.40	29.4%	25.7%	-3.7%
	BetVictor	3.40	29.4%	25.7%	-3.7%
	1xBet	3.40	29.4%	25.7%	-3.7%
	Dafabet	3.40	29.4%	25.7%	-3.7%
Home 1X2	BetVictorBest price +1.4%	3.10	32.3%	29.8%	-2.5%
	1xBet	3.10	32.3%	29.8%	-2.5%
	Dafabet	3.10	32.3%	29.8%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	3.04	32.9%	29.8%	-3.1%
	Bet365	3.00	33.3%	29.8%	-3.5%
	Betfair	3.00	33.3%	29.8%	-3.5%
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +1.2%	2.06	48.5%	44.5%	-4.0%
	Dafabet	2.06	48.5%	44.5%	-4.0%
	BetVictor	2.05	48.8%	44.5%	-4.3%
	Marathonbet	2.04	49.0%	44.5%	-4.5%
	Bet365	2.00	50.0%	44.5%	-5.5%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	44.5%	-5.5%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.6%	2.05	48.8%	46.7%	-2.1%
	BetVictor	2.00	50.0%	46.7%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	1.97	50.8%	46.7%	-4.1%
	1xBet	1.97	50.8%	46.7%	-4.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +0.9%	1.75	57.1%	53.3%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	1.73	57.8%	53.3%	-4.5%
	BetVictor	1.73	57.8%	53.3%	-4.5%
	1xBet	1.73	57.8%	53.3%	-4.5%
No BTTS	BetVictorBest price +2.2%	2.20	45.5%	42.8%	-2.7%
	1xBet	2.15	46.5%	42.8%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	2.11	47.4%	42.8%	-4.6%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.60	62.5%	57.2%	-5.3%
	BetVictor	1.60	62.5%	57.2%	-5.3%
	1xBet	1.60	62.5%	57.2%	-5.3%

Model reasoning

Ceará U20 have been more effective in results, going unbeaten in all 10 matches with 7 wins, while Tirol U20 have a perfect defensive record in terms of not losing either, but with fewer wins. The away side also has slightly stronger overall goal impact, with 26 scored and only 6 conceded compared to Tirol’s 26 scored and just 4 conceded. Both teams look capable of scoring in this matchup. Tirol U20 have conceded only 4 across 10 games, which supports the idea that they can keep things tight, but Ceará U20’s 26 goals suggest they should still create chances even away. The combined scoring profile aligns with the higher both teams to score probability of 57.2%. The goal environment also leans toward a match with at least three total goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53.3%. That makes BTTS Yes a reasonable fit, though the relatively low goals conceded by Tirol keeps the risk from being low. With BTTS Yes at a medium confidence level (63) and a close draw probability (25.7%), the main uncertainty is whether Tirol’s strong defense suppresses Ceará’s scoring. Still, the overall balance of scoring ability and unbeaten form supports the BTTS Yes direction.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

More predictions

All Cearense U20 predictions →

Team hubs: Tirol U20 predictions · Ceará U20 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.