Pre-match

Medium risk

Akademiya Konoplev U20 vs Zenit U19

Fri, Aug 21, 12:00 PM

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 73/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

Akademiya Konoplev U20 (LWDLW) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.8 for Zenit U19 (WWDLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 73/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

73/100

Confidence

73/100

Strongest cover

85.3% probability

Risk classification

Medium

16.9% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

4 sources

33 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AKU win14.7%

Draw16.9%

ZU win68.4%

Goals

Over 1.586.8%

Over 2.573.9%

Under 2.526.1%

Both teams to score

Yes66.5%

No33.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Akademiya Konoplev U20

7/15 recent form points

LWDLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Zenit U19

10/15 recent form points

WWDLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.74
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/6 and Over 2.5 in 5/6.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 21, 06:00 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Zenit U19 3-0 Akademiya Konoplev U20

2026-04-10T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Zenit U19 3-1 Akademiya Konoplev U20

2025-10-17T11:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Akademiya Konoplev U20 1-6 Zenit U19

2025-06-20T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Zenit U19 1-1 Akademiya Konoplev U20

2024-10-04T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Akademiya Konoplev U20 2-4 Zenit U19

2024-08-23T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Zenit U19 5-2 Akademiya Konoplev U20

2023-07-07T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	DafabetBest price +4.7%	6.20	16.1%	14.7%	-1.4%
	Superbet	6.00	16.7%	14.7%	-2.0%
	1xBet	5.83	17.2%	14.7%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	5.65	17.7%	14.7%	-3.0%
Draw 1X2	DafabetBest price +2.5%	5.20	19.2%	16.9%	-2.3%
	Marathonbet	5.05	19.8%	16.9%	-2.9%
	1xBet	5.05	19.8%	16.9%	-2.9%
	Superbet	5.00	20.0%	16.9%	-3.1%
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +1.5%	1.37	73.0%	68.4%	-4.6%
	Marathonbet	1.36	73.5%	68.4%	-5.1%
	Dafabet	1.34	74.6%	68.4%	-6.2%
	Superbet	1.33	75.2%	68.4%	-6.8%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +2.2%	3.58	27.9%	26.1%	-1.8%
	1xBet	3.58	27.9%	26.1%	-1.8%
	Superbet	3.35	29.9%	26.1%	-3.8%
Over 2.5 Totals	SuperbetBest price +1.1%	1.23	81.3%	73.9%	-7.4%
	Marathonbet	1.21	82.6%	73.9%	-8.7%
	1xBet	1.21	82.6%	73.9%	-8.7%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +3.6%	2.84	35.2%	33.5%	-1.7%
	Marathonbet	2.78	36.0%	33.5%	-2.5%
	Superbet	2.60	38.5%	33.5%	-5.0%
Yes BTTS	SuperbetBest price +3.8%	1.44	69.4%	66.5%	-2.9%
	Marathonbet	1.36	73.5%	66.5%	-7.0%
	1xBet	1.36	73.5%	66.5%	-7.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	SuperbetBest price +1.0%	2.72	36.8%	0.0%	-36.8%
	Marathonbet	2.68	37.3%	0.0%	-37.3%
	1xBet	2.68	37.3%	0.0%	-37.3%
Home or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	1xBet	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	Superbet	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
Draw or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +0.3%	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%
	1xBet	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%
	Superbet	1.06	94.3%	0.0%	-94.3%

Model reasoning

Zenit U19 look stronger in overall results and scoring. They have 12 wins from 19 compared with Akademiya Konoplev U20’s 8 wins, and Zenit’s goal difference is notably better with 52 scored and 23 conceded versus 38 scored and 36 conceded for the home side. The recent form also leans Zenit’s way. Akademiya’s last five reads LWDLW, while Zenit’s is WWDLW, showing more consistency in getting results and fewer defensive lapses given their lower goals conceded. The market-style probabilities align with this gap: away win is estimated at 68.4% versus 14.7% for a home win, and the draw at 16.9%. There’s also a strong lean toward goals, with over 2.5 goals at 73.9% and both teams to score at 66.5%, suggesting a match where Zenit can win while Akademiya still has a chance to contribute offensively. With confidence at 73 and risk labeled medium, the away win case is supported by the stats, but the draw probability is not negligible, so the outcome is not fully one-sided.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:01 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

More predictions

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Team hubs: Akademiya Konoplev U20 predictions · Zenit U19 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.