Pre-match

Medium risk

Meshakhte vs Dinamo Batumi

Fri, Aug 21, 01:00 PMAgrano Vachadze Stadium

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 76/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

Meshakhte (LDLLL) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.5 for Dinamo Batumi (WWLDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 76/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

76/100

Confidence

76/100

Strongest cover

86.2% probability

Risk classification

Medium

21.6% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

M win13.8%

Draw21.6%

DB win64.6%

Goals

Over 1.576.9%

Over 2.553.1%

Under 2.546.9%

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%

No50.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Meshakhte

1/15 recent form points

LDLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.71
Shots on target: Unavailable

Dinamo Batumi

10/15 recent form points

WWLDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.62
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/5 and Over 2.5 in 3/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 21, 08:23 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Dinamo Batumi 2-1 Meshakhte

2026-05-16T19:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Meshakhte 0-0 Dinamo Batumi

2026-03-16T12:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Meshakhte 1-2 Dinamo Batumi

2024-08-14T14:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Meshakhte 1-3 Dinamo Batumi

2011-11-13T11:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Dinamo Batumi 1-0 Meshakhte

2011-09-09T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	William HillBest price +4.8%	6.50	15.4%	13.8%	-1.6%
	Bet365	6.50	15.4%	13.8%	-1.6%
	BetVictor	6.50	15.4%	13.8%	-1.6%
	Marathonbet	6.30	15.9%	13.8%	-2.1%
	Betfair	6.00	16.7%	13.8%	-2.9%
	10Bet	5.40	18.5%	13.8%	-4.7%
Draw 1X2	BetVictorBest price +7.7%	4.33	23.1%	21.6%	-1.5%
	Marathonbet	4.25	23.5%	21.6%	-1.9%
	Betfair	4.20	23.8%	21.6%	-2.2%
	Bet365	3.90	25.6%	21.6%	-4.0%
	William Hill	3.80	26.3%	21.6%	-4.7%
	10Bet	3.65	27.4%	21.6%	-5.8%
Away 1X2	10BetBest price +6.7%	1.53	65.4%	64.6%	-0.8%
	Bet365	1.44	69.4%	64.6%	-4.8%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	64.6%	-4.8%
	William Hill	1.40	71.4%	64.6%	-6.8%
	BetVictor	1.40	71.4%	64.6%	-6.8%
	Marathonbet	1.39	71.9%	64.6%	-7.3%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetVictorBest price +4.0%	2.05	48.8%	46.9%	-1.9%
	Marathonbet	2.01	49.8%	46.9%	-2.9%
	Bet365	2.00	50.0%	46.9%	-3.1%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	46.9%	-4.4%
	10Bet	1.85	54.1%	46.9%	-7.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.4%	1.80	55.6%	53.1%	-2.5%
	10Bet	1.75	57.1%	53.1%	-4.0%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	53.1%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	1.70	58.8%	53.1%	-5.7%
	BetVictor	1.70	58.8%	53.1%	-5.7%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +2.4%	1.91	52.4%	49.6%	-2.8%
	William Hill	1.85	54.1%	49.6%	-4.5%
	Marathonbet	1.85	54.1%	49.6%	-4.5%
	BetVictor	1.85	54.1%	49.6%	-4.5%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.0%	1.83	54.6%	50.4%	-4.2%
	BetVictor	1.83	54.6%	50.4%	-4.2%
	William Hill	1.80	55.6%	50.4%	-5.2%
	Marathonbet	1.79	55.9%	50.4%	-5.5%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetVictorBest price +4.8%	2.63	38.0%	0.0%	-38.0%
	William Hill	2.60	38.5%	0.0%	-38.5%
	Marathonbet	2.55	39.2%	0.0%	-39.2%
	Betfair	2.50	40.0%	0.0%	-40.0%
	Bet365	2.40	41.7%	0.0%	-41.7%
	10Bet	2.38	42.0%	0.0%	-42.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.0%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	10Bet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Bet365	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	BetVictor	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Marathonbet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +2.0%	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	BetVictor	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
	William Hill	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%
	Betfair	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%
	10Bet	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%
	Marathonbet	1.05	95.2%	0.0%	-95.2%

Model reasoning

Dinamo Batumi look more likely to win away, with a stronger overall record than Meshakhte. Dinamo’s 8 wins in 21 matches compares to Meshakhte’s 1 win in 21, and Dinamo have scored 34 goals versus Meshakhte’s 15. That gap in scoring output supports the away win lean. Defensively, Dinamo Batumi also appear more stable than Meshakhte. Dinamo have conceded 32 goals compared to Meshakhte’s 39, and they have more clean sheets (3 versus 5 for Meshakhte, though Meshakhte’s clean sheets haven’t translated into results given their 1-8-12 record). The combination of better results and a closer defensive profile favors Dinamo. The draw is still plausible, since the probabilities put it at 21.6%, and Meshakhte’s recent form is poor (LDLLL), which can sometimes lead to low-scoring games rather than a decisive swing. Still, Dinamo’s recent form is comparatively stronger (WWLDW), which aligns with the higher away win probability of 64.6%. For goals, over 2.5 is only slightly more likely than not at 53.1%, and both teams to score is close to even at 49.6%. So while an away win is the main signal, the match could remain relatively tight rather than producing a clear high-scoring pattern.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 21 Aug 2026 10:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.