Pre-match

Medium risk

Swansea vs Burnley prediction

Sat, Sep 12, 02:00 PMSwansea.com Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 63/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Swansea (DWWDL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 0.9 for Burnley (LLDLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 63/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

63/100

Confidence

63/100

Strongest cover

84.9% probability

Risk classification

Medium

21.3% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

S win63.6%

Draw21.3%

B win15.1%

Goals

Over 1.577.3%

Over 2.552.7%

Under 2.547.3%

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%

No47.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Swansea

8/15 recent form points

DWWDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.33
Shots on target: Unavailable

Burnley

2/15 recent form points

LLDLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.17
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Swansea 0-2 Burnley

2025-03-15T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Burnley 1-0 Swansea

2024-11-10T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Swansea 1-2 Burnley

2023-01-02T16:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Burnley 4-0 Swansea

2022-10-15T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Swansea 1-0 Burnley

2018-02-10T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Burnley 2-0 Swansea

2017-11-18T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Swansea 3-2 Burnley

2017-03-04T16:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Burnley 0-1 Swansea

2016-08-13T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Burnley 0-1 Swansea

2015-02-28T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Swansea 1-0 Burnley

2014-08-23T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Swansea vs Burnley. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 11 Sep 2026 09:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

More predictions

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Team hubs: Swansea predictions · Burnley predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.