Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe

Sturm Graz at home has a mixed start in 2025, with 1 win and 1 loss from 2 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 6. That defensive concession rate is high, but their overall home results still keep them competitive, which aligns with the home win being the most likely single outcome at 48.9%. Fenerbahçe away has 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses from 4 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 5, with 1 clean sheet. Their record suggests they can avoid defeat sometimes, but the two away losses pull down the away win likelihood to 26.1%, even though they are not being outscored heavily overall. The goal-related signals point to a fairly open game. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48.7%, and both teams to score is slightly more likely at 53.7%, which fits with Sturm Graz having no clean sheets and Fenerbahçe conceding in most of their away matches. With the home win probability only modestly above the draw and away win, the confidence is limited (35) and the risk is high. The matchup profile suggests Sturm Graz could edge it, but the scoring pattern makes a draw or a narrow away result plausible.