Pre-match

Low risk

Brindabella vs Tuggeranong United

Wed, Aug 12, 08:30 AMCalwell Field

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 77/100

Model verdict

Low risk

Away Win

Brindabella (LLLWL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 2.1 for Tuggeranong United (WWLWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 77/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

77/100

Confidence

77/100

Strongest cover

84.1% probability

Risk classification

Low

17.6% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

45 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

B win15.9%

Draw17.6%

TU win66.5%

Goals

Over 1.586%

Over 2.570.1%

Under 2.529.9%

Both teams to score

Yes62.7%

No37.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Brindabella

3/15 recent form points

LLLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.59
Shots on target: Unavailable

Tuggeranong United

9/15 recent form points

WWLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.28
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 11, 04:18 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Tuggeranong United 5-1 Brindabella

2026-05-16T11:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	BetfairBest price +13.9%	6.00	16.7%	15.9%	-0.8%
	Marathonbet	5.55	18.0%	15.9%	-2.1%
	Unibet	5.40	18.5%	15.9%	-2.6%
	Bet365	5.00	20.0%	15.9%	-4.1%
	Pinnacle	4.85	20.6%	15.9%	-4.7%
	BetVictor	4.80	20.8%	15.9%	-4.9%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +5.3%	5.00	20.0%	17.6%	-2.4%
	Betfair	5.00	20.0%	17.6%	-2.4%
	Marathonbet	4.95	20.2%	17.6%	-2.6%
	Pinnacle	4.83	20.7%	17.6%	-3.1%
	Unibet	4.60	21.7%	17.6%	-4.1%
	BetVictor	4.10	24.4%	17.6%	-6.8%
Away 1X2	PinnacleBest price +4.4%	1.43	69.9%	66.5%	-3.4%
	Bet365	1.38	72.5%	66.5%	-6.0%
	Unibet	1.38	72.5%	66.5%	-6.0%
	Marathonbet	1.37	73.0%	66.5%	-6.5%
	Betfair	1.33	75.2%	66.5%	-8.7%
	BetVictor	1.33	75.2%	66.5%	-8.7%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +12.4%	3.40	29.4%	29.9%	+0.5%
	Unibet	3.10	32.3%	29.9%	-2.4%
	Marathonbet	2.97	33.7%	29.9%	-3.8%
	BetVictor	2.63	38.0%	29.9%	-8.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.0%	1.30	76.9%	70.1%	-6.8%
	Marathonbet	1.30	76.9%	70.1%	-6.8%
	Unibet	1.28	78.1%	70.1%	-8.0%
	BetVictor	1.22	82.0%	70.1%	-11.9%
No BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +5.2%	2.44	41.0%	37.3%	-3.7%
	BetVictor	2.20	45.5%	37.3%	-8.2%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +4.3%	1.45	69.0%	62.7%	-6.3%
	BetVictor	1.33	75.2%	62.7%	-12.5%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +12.5%	2.88	34.7%	0.0%	-34.7%
	Marathonbet	2.62	38.2%	0.0%	-38.2%
	BetVictor	2.55	39.2%	0.0%	-39.2%
	Unibet	2.45	40.8%	0.0%	-40.8%
	Bet365	2.30	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +3.6%	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	BetVictor	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	Unibet	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%
	Betfair	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%
	Marathonbet	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +2.7%	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Unibet	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	Marathonbet	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	BetVictor	1.04	96.2%	0.0%	-96.2%

Model reasoning

Tuggeranong United look more likely to win away, with a strong season record of 12W 0D 6L compared to Brindabella’s 3W 0D 14L. The home side has struggled defensively, conceding 49 goals in 17 matches, while Tuggeranong have scored 41 in 18 and are more consistent in recent results. The goal profile also supports the away direction. Brindabella’s low scoring output (10 goals) alongside their high concession total suggests they may struggle to keep the game close, while Tuggeranong’s 39 goals conceded indicates they can compete defensively enough to convert their attacking edge. There’s also a relatively high chance of goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70.1% and both teams to score at 62.7%. That combination fits a scenario where Tuggeranong can create enough chances to win, while Brindabella’s defensive record makes it plausible they contribute at least once. Overall, the away win probability is 66.5% with a low risk level, but the draw probability (17.6%) is not negligible, so the result is more favored than guaranteed.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 11 Aug 2026 18:51 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.