Struga vs Vardar Skopje
0–024′
AI prediction
Under 2.5 Goals
Confidence 40/100
Under 2.5 Goals
Struga (WLLLL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.4 for Vardar Skopje (WWWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 40/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped. The strongest fair-price edge is Home or Draw at 34 percentage points.
Confidence
40/100
Strongest cover
12
69.7% probability
Risk classification
High
30.3% draw weight
Value status
Home or Draw
+34.0 pp vs market
Market sample
6 sources
51 price observations
Full distribution
Market probabilities
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Evidence ledger
Struga
3/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 2.06
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Vardar Skopje
15/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 2.42
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Matchup xG signal
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.
Price interpretation
Value read
Double Chance · Bet365
Home or Draw
Model edge
+34.0 pp
- Model
- 67.2%
- Market fair
- 33.2%
- Price
- 1.53
The model assigns this outcome a higher chance than the margin-adjusted market view. Its model-fair price is 1.49 versus 1.53 offered. That is a disagreement with the market, not a promise of profit.
Provenance
Model card
- Version
- livewin-hybrid-v0.6
- Data source
- Licensed live data feed
- Statistics baseline
- 2025 season
- Odds timestamp
- Aug 16, 12:01 PM UTC
- Optional coverage
- H2H available · odds available
- Confidence
- Signal agreement score
- Risk
- High · uncertainty remains
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.
Head-to-Head
Struga 0-1 Vardar Skopje
2026-05-15T16:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Struga 1-1 Vardar Skopje
2026-02-28T14:00:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Vardar Skopje 2-2 Struga
2025-10-05T15:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Vardar Skopje 2-0 Struga
2025-05-21T20:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Vardar Skopje 0-0 Struga
2025-05-06T17:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Struga 0-2 Vardar Skopje
2025-02-22T14:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Vardar Skopje 1-4 Struga
2024-10-05T14:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Vardar Skopje 1-0 Struga
2024-04-07T15:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Vardar Skopje 1-3 Struga
2023-11-29T13:00:00+01:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Struga 4-0 Vardar Skopje
2023-11-01T13:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Odds Comparison
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw 1X2 | Bet365Best price +6.3% | 3.10 | 32.3% | 30.3% | -2.0% |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 33.3% | 30.3% | -3.0% | |
| Marathonbet | 2.89 | 34.6% | 30.3% | -4.3% | |
| 1xBet | 2.89 | 34.6% | 30.3% | -4.3% | |
| Pinnacle | 2.87 | 34.8% | 30.3% | -4.5% | |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 36.4% | 30.3% | -6.1% | |
Away 1X2 | 1xBetBest price +5.1% | 2.91 | 34.4% | 32.8% | -1.6% |
| Marathonbet | 2.84 | 35.2% | 32.8% | -2.4% | |
| Pinnacle | 2.82 | 35.5% | 32.8% | -2.7% | |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 35.7% | 32.8% | -2.9% | |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 36.4% | 32.8% | -3.6% | |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 40.0% | 32.8% | -7.2% | |
Home 1X2 | William HillBest price +1.3% | 2.45 | 40.8% | 36.9% | -3.9% |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 40.8% | 36.9% | -3.9% | |
| 1xBet | 2.43 | 41.2% | 36.9% | -4.3% | |
| Marathonbet | 2.41 | 41.5% | 36.9% | -4.6% | |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 41.7% | 36.9% | -4.8% | |
| Pinnacle | 2.37 | 42.2% | 36.9% | -5.3% | |
Over 2.5 Totals | PinnacleBest price +0.8% | 2.13 | 46.9% | 44.0% | -2.9% |
| Marathonbet | 2.12 | 47.2% | 44.0% | -3.2% | |
| 1xBet | 2.12 | 47.2% | 44.0% | -3.2% | |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.0% | -3.6% | |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.0% | -3.6% | |
Under 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +3.3% | 1.70 | 58.8% | 56.0% | -2.8% |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 60.6% | 56.0% | -4.6% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 61.3% | 56.0% | -5.3% | |
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 61.3% | 56.0% | -5.3% | |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 61.7% | 56.0% | -5.7% | |
No BTTS | BetfairBest price +2.6% | 1.91 | 52.4% | 49.0% | -3.4% |
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 53.8% | 49.0% | -4.8% | |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 54.1% | 49.0% | -5.1% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 54.6% | 49.0% | -5.6% | |
Yes BTTS | MarathonbetBest price +0.3% | 1.81 | 55.2% | 51.0% | -4.2% |
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 55.2% | 51.0% | -4.2% | |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.0% | -4.6% | |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.0% | -4.6% | |
Home or Draw Double Chance | Bet365Best price +10.4% | 1.53 | 65.4% | 0.0% | -65.4% |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 71.4% | 0.0% | -71.4% | |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.32 | 75.8% | 0.0% | -75.8% | |
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 75.8% | 0.0% | -75.8% | |
Draw or Away Double Chance | BetfairBest price +4.5% | 1.50 | 66.7% | 0.0% | -66.7% |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 69.4% | 0.0% | -69.4% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 69.4% | 0.0% | -69.4% | |
| 1xBet | 1.44 | 69.4% | 0.0% | -69.4% | |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5% | |
Home or Away Double Chance | William HillBest price +3.2% | 1.36 | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5% |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 75.2% | 0.0% | -75.2% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.31 | 76.3% | 0.0% | -76.3% | |
| 1xBet | 1.31 | 76.3% | 0.0% | -76.3% | |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 78.1% | 0.0% | -78.1% |
Model reasoning
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Sun, 16 Aug 2026 14:02 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
More predictions
Team hubs: Struga predictions · Vardar Skopje predictions
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.